December 21, 2015
Thoughts on Matt Bush from MLB Daily Dish...
I was going to do a follow up on the Matt Bush post, but MLB Daily Dish beat me to it...
This. This is, basically, what I was going to write in a follow-up to my initial post on Matt Bush and the Rangers.
Posted by Ben Menix on Monday, December 21, 2015
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December 18, 2015
Rangers big on stories (once again) on December 18th...
After Jon Daniels no-commented the broken news that the Rangers had a deal in place for Colby Lewis, Jeff Wilson is also now reporting that Texas has signed former #1 draft pick, recovering alcoholic and official ex-con Matt Bush to a minor-league deal. Bush was drafted in 2004 but topped out at AA for San Diego. He spent a short amount of time with Toronto before signing with the Rays; the Rays released him after a drunk-driving accident. Bush plead no contest to a DUI hit-and-run in 2012, and was released from prison in October. Bush has been working with Rangers faith and substance abuse guru Roy Silver, who endorsed the signing. Silver received a lot of attention for his work with Josh Hamilton; keeping the slugger mostly straight, if not really narrow during his first stint in Texas. After discontinuing his work with Silver, Hamilton relapsed with cocaine while playing for L.A.A.
Scouts say Bush probably has no future as a starter at this point, but a quality fastball could fast-track him into the bullpen. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
Scouts say Bush probably has no future as a starter at this point, but a quality fastball could fast-track him into the bullpen. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
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Lewis in agreement with Rangers pending physical...
Considering he had surgery to repair a torn meniscus earlier this offseason, and is a 36-year-old veteran of labrum surgery and hip resurfacing the past few years; and in light of the recent Hisashi Iwakuma failed physical, this is by no means a done deal.
However, the dollar amount and one-year term seems to indicate that the Rangers probably intend to get him signed regardless of the outcome of the physical. Probably more an issue of standard procedure and making sure there isn't anything *else* wrong that needs to be fixed before next season.
I was wrong about this, unless something comes to light after the physical. I thought this deal would be a repeat of last year, when Colby was reported to be disappointed with the Rangers' offer and sought out other contracts, only to eventually sign for one year/$4 million. This one year/$6 million deal is right in line with Lewis's worth minus discounts for health and regression: his STEAMER projection of 1.1 fWAR next year is certainly dragged up from normal progression by his 2.6 fWAR 2015 which you have to consider an outlier at this stage of his career.
Still, considering the contracts that similarly-aged and similarly-talented (and less talented) pitchers have received this year, a lot of observers were wondering of Lewis could actually command deal of $16m over 2 years. Surely *somebody* was willing to go 2/$10. I don't personally believe the "home team player discount" concept is a real, going concern for most players; although Lewis fits the profile of someone who would do such a thing. He's at the end of his career one way or another; he was drafted by the Rangers, and Texas is the team that gambled on him being able to lead a rotation when he came back from Japan.
On the other hand, that's been the narrative for three years now. Colby is cheap because Colby wants to be in Texas. Since coming back from multiple surgeries, Colby has been paid a relative pittance for the value he has generated. This year being the exception, I can't imagine Colby turned down offers at value to pitch for Texas cheaply the past few years...and that indicates that the market for Lewis was never strong.
The article notes that the signing, maybe even the physical, won't actually happen until next year. So, we have to consider that there could still be drama ahead. But I hope not. Colby is a solid back-end starter, and a Texas Ranger.
However, the dollar amount and one-year term seems to indicate that the Rangers probably intend to get him signed regardless of the outcome of the physical. Probably more an issue of standard procedure and making sure there isn't anything *else* wrong that needs to be fixed before next season.
I was wrong about this, unless something comes to light after the physical. I thought this deal would be a repeat of last year, when Colby was reported to be disappointed with the Rangers' offer and sought out other contracts, only to eventually sign for one year/$4 million. This one year/$6 million deal is right in line with Lewis's worth minus discounts for health and regression: his STEAMER projection of 1.1 fWAR next year is certainly dragged up from normal progression by his 2.6 fWAR 2015 which you have to consider an outlier at this stage of his career.
Still, considering the contracts that similarly-aged and similarly-talented (and less talented) pitchers have received this year, a lot of observers were wondering of Lewis could actually command deal of $16m over 2 years. Surely *somebody* was willing to go 2/$10. I don't personally believe the "home team player discount" concept is a real, going concern for most players; although Lewis fits the profile of someone who would do such a thing. He's at the end of his career one way or another; he was drafted by the Rangers, and Texas is the team that gambled on him being able to lead a rotation when he came back from Japan.
On the other hand, that's been the narrative for three years now. Colby is cheap because Colby wants to be in Texas. Since coming back from multiple surgeries, Colby has been paid a relative pittance for the value he has generated. This year being the exception, I can't imagine Colby turned down offers at value to pitch for Texas cheaply the past few years...and that indicates that the market for Lewis was never strong.
The article notes that the signing, maybe even the physical, won't actually happen until next year. So, we have to consider that there could still be drama ahead. But I hope not. Colby is a solid back-end starter, and a Texas Ranger.
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December 14, 2015
Pete Rose...
Don't know if this will make any difference to anyone, but to me personally whether Rose gambled/gambles is irrelevant to his inclusion in the Hall of Fame. In my opinion, the Hall of Fame is about performance, and their adoption of the integrity clause used by MLB is a cop-out.
That's a different issue from whether he should be banned from participating in MLB-sanctioned baseball exhibitions. I don't think Rose should be banned-for-life from baseball, because I believe MLB is inconsistent in how the commissioner's office applies bans. I think betting on your team is a legitimate reason to be banned...I just think MLB doesn't apply bans appropriately, justly or consistently.
The reason this won't be resolved until Rose is dead is because it involves MLB admitted *they* did something wrong as well, and forces the Hall of Fame to deal with an issue that they don't really want to deal with.
For the record, I really don't like the commissioner's position that Rose has to reject gambling and show a particular type of contrition to get un-banned. I don't like MLB being morality police (he's either banned because he gambled while playing, or he's NOT banned because he gambled while playing. None of this crap because he's STILL gambling. Not your job.)
That's a different issue from whether he should be banned from participating in MLB-sanctioned baseball exhibitions. I don't think Rose should be banned-for-life from baseball, because I believe MLB is inconsistent in how the commissioner's office applies bans. I think betting on your team is a legitimate reason to be banned...I just think MLB doesn't apply bans appropriately, justly or consistently.
The reason this won't be resolved until Rose is dead is because it involves MLB admitted *they* did something wrong as well, and forces the Hall of Fame to deal with an issue that they don't really want to deal with.
For the record, I really don't like the commissioner's position that Rose has to reject gambling and show a particular type of contrition to get un-banned. I don't like MLB being morality police (he's either banned because he gambled while playing, or he's NOT banned because he gambled while playing. None of this crap because he's STILL gambling. Not your job.)
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December 12, 2015
Astros get Ken Giles...
From MLBTradeRumors.com: "The Phillies have announced the trade. However, several components have changed. The Phillies will receive Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz."
As a Rangers fan, I can't can tell you how happy I am that Houston took a kick in the nuts like that package to acquire a reliever that's just about as good as, maybe even a bit better, than Velasquez probably would be. When Luhnow said yes to this deal, Matt Klentak must have dropped the phone, mouthing "I was kidding..."
Yes, kiddos, even Jeff Luhnow makes mistakes. I mean, you give him a pass for things like J.D. Martinez...but this will have people cussing at some point in 2016. Some people are cussing now:
From Crawfish Boxes: "That is not about disliking Giles - it's about the cost efficiency of trading a lot of value for a guy who will affect maybe seventy innings a season, no matter how good he is.
As a Rangers fan, I can't can tell you how happy I am that Houston took a kick in the nuts like that package to acquire a reliever that's just about as good as, maybe even a bit better, than Velasquez probably would be. When Luhnow said yes to this deal, Matt Klentak must have dropped the phone, mouthing "I was kidding..."
Yes, kiddos, even Jeff Luhnow makes mistakes. I mean, you give him a pass for things like J.D. Martinez...but this will have people cussing at some point in 2016. Some people are cussing now:
From Crawfish Boxes: "That is not about disliking Giles - it's about the cost efficiency of trading a lot of value for a guy who will affect maybe seventy innings a season, no matter how good he is.
No, this post is not about liking Ken Giles. This post is about examining what Mr. Luhnow and his team just sent to Philadelphia to make Giles the newest member of the Houston Astros, and deciding if the price was worth the reward."
The article goes on with reconciliation justified by small sample sizes and pointing out that other teams have made worse deals for closers.
The comments go on to argue that the Astros will probably still have Gregerson close, with Giles performing 8th Inning duties.
Justify all you want, Astros fans. This is such a huge overpay, it gets my vote as second-worst trade of the off-season. After the Miller trade, of course.
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December 11, 2015
Hanson news...
Hanson died from a lethal mix of cocaine and alcohol.
That's sad. It was rumored at his last few stops, including with the Rangers, that "personal issues", which can mean drug abuse problems among several other things, were the reasons he couldn't stick with a team or on a roster.
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Heyward to the Cubs
I don't even care what Heyward adds to the team. Just the fact that he chose the Cubs over the Cardinals is wonderful.
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December 03, 2015
The few things that might mean something...
Rangers GM Jon Daniels had a conference call with baseball media today. While most of the answered questions were predictably non-specific,
...he had a few comments that actually inform speculation. After providing general praise for Mike Napoli, he had this to say about the possibility of bringing Napoli back for 2016:
emphasis is mine, of course. My interpretation is that Napoli, unsurprisingly, does not want a platoon role. This is probably why his agent announced right after the playoffs ended that Napoli would like to explore catching again in 2016. Considering the Rangers catcher plan seems to be to role with Chirinos and Gimenez until they can swing a trade for or signing of a good catcher*, I would say the implication that Daniels was happy to put out was that Fielder, and more importantly, Moreland, are available. How Daniels is picturing the lineup working out in that situation I'm not clear...Jeff Banister was intent over the final month of the season in getting Fielder, Moreland and Napoli all into the lineup at the same time. Notably however, Moreland was more likely to sit than Napoli.
"As the season goes on, those guys might be the right options.â€
"Mike probably fits us best if there is another move that opens some playing time.â€
*Texas put out some information to the media (or somebody leaked) that the Rangers were pursuing a backup catcher before the contract tender deadline. Considering the number of quality backup backstops that got released or traded for nothing, I'm calling bullshit on that rumor. Texas was and is looking for a quality trade. It is possible however that Texas was just not able to work out a deal for some of these guys with their current team, and may be pursuing a trade with their new teams. Texas signed Gimenez to a contract at the last minute, but it seems clear that the Rangers view Gimenez as depth.
About Josh Hamilton:
About Josh Hamilton:
No "if" this time. This seems to indicate that Daniels is definitely planning on Hamilton being a starter next year, although likely not for more than 100 games."We’ll have to construct the roster in such a way that we can give him some time off and anticipate he might miss some time.â€
JD also intimated that if another team wants Elvis Andrus, they better be in love with him. Colby has been cleared by team doctor Keith Meister, and both parties are interested in a new contract. I predict this will be more dramatic than it needs to be. Colby is a back-end starter with surprising, small-sample-size durability. Unfortunately, a few of those guys have received 8 figure deals the last couple of years; and Texas would much rather be playing in the low-7-figure range.
Something Jon Daniels *didn't* talk about is the fact that Cliff Lee has been cleared to pitch again. *Somebody* will give him a cheap contract with a ton of incentives. I wouldn't mind if it was Texas, but a strongly suspect it'll be St. Louis. **** St. Louis.
Something Jon Daniels *didn't* talk about is the fact that Cliff Lee has been cleared to pitch again. *Somebody* will give him a cheap contract with a ton of incentives. I wouldn't mind if it was Texas, but a strongly suspect it'll be St. Louis. **** St. Louis.
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Leonys deal completed in a surprising fashion...
I don't have a lot to write about this, but yesterday Texas and Seattle completed the Leonys Martin/Tom Wilhelmsen trade by adding Seattle's #4 prospect Patrick Kivlehan to their 40-man roster and then sending him to Texas' 40-man roster.
General Manager Jon Daniels said the Player-To-Be-Named-Later was actually a significant part of the deal, and he wasn't kidding. Kivlehan isn't an elite prospect in any way...he was undrafted in high school and didn't play baseball for Rutgers until he had used up his football eligibility. As a college senior, however, he tore up the Big East, setting hitting records and eventually was drafted in the fourth round in 2012. In Seattle's minor league system he has advanced to AA ball, consistently hitting. A former Safety, he allegedly has the athleticism to play all over the field including Center this winter, although some scouts have him pegged as limited to the corners and a future 1B. His "makeup", if you believe in quantifying such a thing, is reported to be off the charts.
Depending on which scouting report you go with, he sounds like a potential "almost" Ben Zobrist. That's pie-in-the-sky, of course, but Kivlehan is definitely a prospect you can dream on.
Depending on which scouting report you go with, he sounds like a potential "almost" Ben Zobrist. That's pie-in-the-sky, of course, but Kivlehan is definitely a prospect you can dream on.
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December 01, 2015
An old favorite makes a predictable move...
Mark Trumbo has moved from the Seattle Mariners to the Baltimore Orioles. Back when Texas was desperately seeking a full-time 1B, before the Kinsler/Fielder trade; I was a big advocate of trading L.A.A. for Trumbo. Instead, he went to Arizona, then Seattle and now Baltimore. If I'm counting right, 2016 will be his last year of team control before free agency.
Trumbo is a right-handed power bat, and that's it. His defense at 1B is below average but not horrible, but he gets used as a COF a lot. On those days his defense is bad. As a 1B he generated approximately 2 fWAR per year from 2011 - 2013, sucked in Arizona in 2014, but returned to positive value splitting the season between Arizona and Seattle.
This move by Baltimore probably indicates that they don't expect to bring Chris Davis back next year. Baltimore has a moderate but strict budget that largely prohibits nine-figure salaries, and even most higher eight-figure salaries. Baltimore had attempted repeatedly to sign Davis to an extension the last few years. His agent is Scott Boras, so that wasn't going to happen unless Baltimore handed him at least $100 million, which the Orioles were trying to avoid.
Interestingly, if you work down the list of big-big spending teams who could afford Davis' payday, you don't hit a vacant 1B position until you reach...Seattle. Second choice would be New York trying to find a way to add Davis...Teixeria is blocking him for one year...I'm not sure New York can afford to miss the opportunity to add Chris Davis to take Teixeria's place.
Trumbo is a right-handed power bat, and that's it. His defense at 1B is below average but not horrible, but he gets used as a COF a lot. On those days his defense is bad. As a 1B he generated approximately 2 fWAR per year from 2011 - 2013, sucked in Arizona in 2014, but returned to positive value splitting the season between Arizona and Seattle.
This move by Baltimore probably indicates that they don't expect to bring Chris Davis back next year. Baltimore has a moderate but strict budget that largely prohibits nine-figure salaries, and even most higher eight-figure salaries. Baltimore had attempted repeatedly to sign Davis to an extension the last few years. His agent is Scott Boras, so that wasn't going to happen unless Baltimore handed him at least $100 million, which the Orioles were trying to avoid.
Interestingly, if you work down the list of big-big spending teams who could afford Davis' payday, you don't hit a vacant 1B position until you reach...Seattle. Second choice would be New York trying to find a way to add Davis...Teixeria is blocking him for one year...I'm not sure New York can afford to miss the opportunity to add Chris Davis to take Teixeria's place.
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Our favorite Phillies...
The Texas Rangers sent a boatload of talent and a decent salary dump to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels trade. The Good Phight has mentioned three of the five Rangers involved recently:
Jorge Alfaro, once one of the best catching prospects in the game and still the bearer of high hopes despite losing most of a season to tendon surgery in his ankle, is taking part in Winter Ball.
Jorge Alfaro, once one of the best catching prospects in the game and still the bearer of high hopes despite losing most of a season to tendon surgery in his ankle, is taking part in Winter Ball.
Jerad Eickhoff, considered a future back-end pitcher in the Rangers organization, almost immediately took his game to a new level and ended up being the Phillies best pitcher last year. That is to say, he provided more value to the Phillies in the second half than Cole Hamels did in the first half. Yikes. Of course, Nick Martinez was in Cy Young discussions for the first half of 2015 for maintaining an ERA closer to .5 than 1.00. Then the rest of the year happened, and he finished his season struggling at AAA Round Rock.
And today, Justin Klugh explorers the Matt Harrison question. Harry was one of the good guys for the Rangers; a legitimate left-handed starter with some decent upside. A guy who, in his best year, was something like what the Rangers keep hoping Derek Holland and Martin Perez will be. Then we found out his back was made of papier-mache, and he missed two years. He did pitch three games this past year, before being sat for rest and subsequently traded for salary relief. He went on the Disabled List as soon as the trade was completed; the diagnosis was back tightness. Philadelphia has encouraged Harrison, and recently put him on the 40-man roster, but other moves made by the club seem to indicate no room for the 30-year old in 2016.
The big question with Harrison is whether he'll ever actually be able to pitch regularly again. The second biggest question is whether he'll ever be able to pitch at a level that would keep him on a major league roster again. His three performances after coming off of the DL were not terribly promising. Texas allegedly explored asking Harrison to extend his rehab program in the minor leagues, but it's not clear if Texas, Harrison, the Players Union or Harrison's agent nixed the deal. He probably needs a full season of healthy pitching at AA or AAA before returning to a roster, but as long as he has a big league contract (through 2017 with a buyout in 2018 ) I can't see that happening.
The big question with Harrison is whether he'll ever actually be able to pitch regularly again. The second biggest question is whether he'll ever be able to pitch at a level that would keep him on a major league roster again. His three performances after coming off of the DL were not terribly promising. Texas allegedly explored asking Harrison to extend his rehab program in the minor leagues, but it's not clear if Texas, Harrison, the Players Union or Harrison's agent nixed the deal. He probably needs a full season of healthy pitching at AA or AAA before returning to a roster, but as long as he has a big league contract (through 2017 with a buyout in 2018 ) I can't see that happening.
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