RE: Cliff Lee makes sense for the Rangers *now*...

Posted by: Ben at 07:04 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Informative trade deadline...

UPDATED for DETROIT and Tampa Bay

This has been one of the most interesting trade deadlines in years, and it's not over yet it's over now (except for waiver deals).  What we know:

Oakland is going balls-to-the-wall to get a championship this year.  Their latest moves to acquire Lester, Gomes and Fuld while trading away Milone, Cespedas and a draft pick, plus earlier trades where they gave up money(!) and other minor leaguers, show that Oakland is willing to degrade their ability to compete as early as next year and for probably a few years after in order to get a championship.  Unfortunately, I think there are at least three team that can beat them, two of which are in the American League.

Boston seems to be focused on another rebuild, which means (at least right now) they're not planning on competing next year.  Looks like the Sox are planning to focus on near-ready prospects, however; which means they're leaving the possibility open of spending big in the off-season and charging hard next year.

That seems to be Texas's plan as well, although Rangers' GM Daniels has been clear from the start that Texas plans to be in the playoffs again next year.  To that end, Darvish and Beltre are supposedly completely off-the-table for all but the most extreme offers.  However, we haven't heard many rumors of Texas being in on controllable pitching, with Lester, Lackey and Hammels all going to contenders.  Not necessarily surprising; really...Texas may be holding their cards for waiver-wire trades (Lee) or off-season deals.  Texas has coveted James Shields and David Price for years, and Shields will be a free-agent this year.  Price may still be a bridge too far, but a rotation of Darvish, Lee (thou shalt not covet; see one post up), Shields and Holland would be, umm, potent.

New York is schizophrenic.

UPDATE:  LAAAAACAAA is going all-out too; they're just not run nearly as well as other clubs.  The Angels have literally NOTHING left on the farm, so if they don't make it this year, you have to think it's a slow slide down.

Also, Seattle thinks it's all in, but clearly the Mariners are still a poorly run organization with no clear structure or goal other than "win somehow".

What's Detroit doing?  Does anyone know?  UPDATE:  Oh, yeah; they're still trying to fix that closer thing.  You would think they would do more.  UPDATE:  Detroit has made a deal for Tampa Bay Ace David Price.  That should put Detroit over Oakland pretty easily in my book.  However, the details of the deal so far don't make a lot of sense.  Right now TB is getting Drew Smyly from Detroit and Nick Franklin from Seattle, while Austin Jackson goes from Detroit to Seattle.  Smyly is a good but not great pitcher (under team control five more years) but Franklin is on the edge of being a busted prospect (although he is under control for six more years, so there's time).  Unless there's more to this deal than has been discussed (like, millions of dollars) this really seems to be a *lot* less for Price than people figured.  A young, team controlled middle-of-the-rotation starter and a nigh-busted outfield prospect.

I don't get it.

UPDATE:  I'm gonna call this now, officially.  There *must* be some kind of behind-the-scenes deals going on between TB and Detroit, because Smyly and Franklin for Price DOES NOT MAKE SENSE.  Even if the argument is that Tampa sees a lot more value in Smyly and/or Franklin than other teams YOU TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT, you don't pay extra on principle.  Pundits are putting the best spin on this move that they can, but it's clear that no one knows what to make of this trade.  If what's been said is all there is, either Price has some SERIOUS injury concerns that were disclosed to Detroit, or Tampa Bay, one of the smartest clubs in baseball, just bombed a deal horribly.  At least ten other clubs could have and would have put together a better package than Franklin and Smyly.

I really get the feeling that baseball writers are trying to find the golden ticket in this deal, because Tampa Bay isn't this stupid.  But unless there's a back-room deal going on, this is a BAD trade for Tampa Bay.  And I bet there are a lot of pissed-off GMs out there right now wanting to know why their package of super-prospects was turned down in favor of a light-hitting outfielder and a back-end starter.

UPDATE AGAIN:  TB is also getting class A shortstop Willy Adames in the deal.  Consensus seems to be he's not a top 100 prospect, *yet*; but has speed, bat and power with good defense.  So moving Franklin back to the infield gives them a good-defending 2B, although, like Zobrist, SS is a bit of challenge.  And then Adames is a high-value shortstop-in-waiting.  At least that's the hope.  If Adames really projects that high, then the deal works, I think.

Posted by: Ben at 11:38 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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He's good with the bat...

UPDATED with new video!

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Hall of Fame addresses problems...

...by cutting a circle in the floor under the problem.

Recent Hall of Fame ballots have primarily centered around players who were snubbed or overlooked by the writers for various reasons that were about to be removed from the ballot.

Critics of the Hall of Fame have been asking for a clarification of certain qualification rules (namely, the moral and ethical conditions that have led some writers to refuse to vote for steroid and other PED users, while wife-beaters, illegal drug abusers and other criminals still warrant a vote).  The HoF has responded by knocking five years of eligibility off of the Hall of Fame ballot, so we won't have to argue about qualifications for nearly as long.

"Dear Ford,

I keep finding damage-causing foreign particulates in the Motorcraft oil you recommend for my Explorer.  What other oil can I use to avoid this problem?

Sincerely,

A Loyal Ford Customer"

"Dear Loyal Ford Customer,

We recommend you keep using Motorcraft oil, but maybe change it more often so that less damage can occur.

Hope that solves your problem,

Ford."

Posted by: Ben at 12:23 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Darvish, Tommy John and culture...

A major reason DFW sports writers don't like Yu Darvish is that he won't talk to them.  He has a built-in excuse to not communicate with the press (the trouble he has with English, which may or may not actually be a significant issue), but when you're a superstar of Darvish's caliber, sports writers are going to insist on trying to get the standard spam expected of players to contribute to column inches.

Darvish shrugs this off, but a complicating factor is that he's quite talky with Japanese media.  In fact, he'll say things to the Japanese press that English-speaking players won't, such as being critical of American pitchers' training regimes.  The most fascinating part of this exchange to me is the Japanese press repeatedly trying to link Tommy John injuries to inferior cultural beliefs and traditions, while Darvish maintains the injuries are functions of

• Selecting for velocity over conditioning and endurance in training
• Workload, especially concerning frequency of pitching days.

The workload argument is probably the most accurate, although it probably can't be proven in any way other than to try it (the six-man rotation, that is).  There is still the counter-intuitive evidence that the frequency of Tommy John surgeries has been on the rise as individual pitcher workload decreased.  The possible explanation is that injuries that were never diagnosed or repaired in past decades are being attended now that we have the technology and will to address them.

Personally I think the sudden increase the last couple of years is mainly do to MLB outlawing and severely punishing human growth hormone as a PED.  Used properly HGH is extremely useful in maintaining health, and I think a lot of people were finally scared off of it the last year or two.

Another interesting note is that Darvish mentions that adding a sixth starting pitcher would depress salaries for starting pitchers overall.  Which is absolutely correct and a clear indication that the players union will be against the move.

Finally, something that we've had some minor rumblings about for a while:  Darvish explicitly states that the new Rawlings balls appear to be of very poor quality.  Of everything Darvish said, expect this claim to go the furthest, because now that he's said it others will step in, especially press who decide to push the slippery baseballs as the reason for Tommy John surgeries.  And since Rawlings isn't represented by the players union or an owner, MLB will take them to task.

Posted by: Ben at 09:18 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Lost Soto...

Nick Martinez has been activated from the disabled list, and Geovany Soto has been placed back on the disabled list.

This is Soto's second trip to the DL this year; he was activated from his first stay at the end of last week.

Soto started the year by having surgery performed to fix some damage to one of his feet; delaying his attendance at Spring Training in Suprise, AZ this past spring.  After one half-game, it was clear that he was hurt, and a few days rest turned into a torn meniscus.

After being activated from the recovery from the the surgery to repair the meniscus, Soto was arrested in DFW for possession of marijuana.

With Soto's activation, the Rangers were carrying four catchers on the 25 man roster, although Arencibia has been playing 1B rather than catching.

So thank goodness that problem is resolved.

%&$#.

Posted by: Ben at 03:29 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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How important is a first round pick?

This important:


Image from SBNation.

Analysis:  Those 2nd round picks are guys that probably should have or could have gone in the 1st round.  1st round picks tend to be players with one or more incredible "tools", the fundamental skills of playing baseball.  The ability to hit the ball frequently and consistently, the ability to hit for power, quickness and fielding ability, speed and arm strength.  The two hit tools can get a player drafted in the 1st round on their own if they're good enough, but usually a player has to have a couple of these tools in complementary combinations, ranked highly enough, to warrant a #1 pick.  There are usually only a dozen high school or college players like this every year, and several of those will be borderline.

After the sure-fire high-quality tool players are gone, clubs usually turn to highly athletic players with excellent work ethic and preferably good attitudes.  These are the guys who are most likely to develop into a major-league-ready player.  There are a lot of high school and college players that could be perceived in that way, and they usually draft in the order of least flaws/best tools downward.  However, it's not unusual for a guy with excellent drive and work ethic but low-quality tools to work his way up.  Notably, former Ranger 2nd baseman Ian Kinsler was a 15th round draft pick who wasn't particular noted for any outstanding skill, but worked up to be an all-star 2B with a good hit tool, moderate power, very good defense and good baserunning abilities.

UPDATE:  Something I forgot to mention.  The 1st Round/2nd Round thing?  That directly illustrates why the "supplemental 1st round pick" a team gets if they lose a free agent is valued so highly.  Offering a free agent a qualifying offer is basically WAR insurance.

Posted by: Ben at 01:56 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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The only Rangers highlight...

Posted by: Ben at 08:35 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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A buyer's market...

With the Rangers floundering, a lot has been said about whether the team needs to sell and/or trade off enough players to compete next year, or get rid of everyone with a big contract and go into full rebuilding mode and look to complete in 2016 or 2017.  I really don't  understand that second argument; Texas has something like 10 - 15 WAR on the disabled list and another 3 - 4 playing hurt (and my own pet peeve that all the rest is being mis-managed).

It's pretty clear, I think, that the Rangers are going to compete in 2015 (unless, according to my own belief, they still have Ron Washington, in which case they'll finish around .500 and Washington will finally be gone.)  And that means that the Rangers are going to be looking to acquire pitching this year.

That's right.  The Texas Rangers are going to be buyers, not sellers.  At least regarding certain positions, mainly pitching.  They have an outfielder that can be replaced internally (maybe two, actually).  Texas also seems to believe firmly in the idea of building bullpens out of leftovers (by which I mean, DFAs and AAAA players) so they'll likely have several bullpen pieces they're willing to dump.  The Rangers also have a buttload of cash that they've saved on salaries this year, and extra revenue starting next year.

Incidentally, Newberg is saying much the same thing:

I would not rule out the idea that Texas jumps into the mix on the"buyer’s” end of a July deal. I would hope, if David Price or Giancarlo Stanton is open for discussion, and you can probably throw another few names of elite impact players with club control beyond 2014 in there too, that Texas gets involved even if that’s a bit unconventional for a club not positioned to win this year.

For one thing, the Rangers are able to part with a core piece at the big league level, something that a contender would obviously be reluctant to do in July and that could appeal to the seller. Which ties back into the first point.

And Texas has plenty of depth in prospects to tack on as well.

I don't see Stanton going anywhere yet, because Miami has made it clear that they want an unprecedented load of prospects for the slugger.  Especially pitching.  Which means Stanton doesn't become a Ranger until Miami decides they can't afford him.  (And honestly, I'm not 100% convinced that Stanton is worth what he's probably going to get.)

But Texas is going to be very much involved in top-level free-agent pitchers, especially the summer rentals that are about to start jumping to playoff-hopeful teams.  This time next year Samardzija may be coming off his tenth win for Texas.

And that's going to piss a lot of people off.

Posted by: Ben at 10:53 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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The great motivator...

The Rangers had a closed door team meeting last night where Ron Washington went off on the team. Tonight, the Rangers came out and showed what a master motivator Wash is.

THIS GOOD.

I wrote earlier in the year that Ron Washington isn't to blame for the 2014 Rangers not being a playoff contender.  However, I do believe he's responsible for the Rangers being as bad as they are.  You can see it in the players; there's no energy and there wasn't BEFORE the bad losing started.  No one is exited to be out there, except the guys who get called up.  Basically the only parts of the team that are working are the parts Wash hasn't been in charge of.

It looks to me like more and more fans are starting to realize that what's going on right now isn't primarily a function of Jon Daniels not providing talent.  The AAA and AA call-ups performing so well has had a lot to do with that.  That Washington clearly doesn't trust the call-ups and won't use them more than he has to is also plain.  Whenever Washington does his "sit the hot rookie for the cold veteran" schtick, citing roles and "gut instinct", he loses credibility.

The big question is, does Wash provide something useful for the rest of the season, or does ownership decide something better happens if Wash is sent packing after the All-Star break?

This team is screaming for a new manager.

Follow Up:  News is breaking (or oozing, or percolating gently...it's not really that big a deal) concerning snippits of the speech Ron Washington gave the troops in the recent closed-door team meeting.  The summary, basically, was Washington addressing the effort being put forth by some players (i.e. not very much), and went something like "I'm 62 and I would still go out there and battle every day and try to do my best; and you're going to act like you can't do that when you're in your 20s?"  This little speech has got a surprising number of people saying  things like, "Woo-hoo!  Look at the balls on Ron Washington!  Calling out those major leaguers!"

My response to that?  Boy, it sure got 'em fired up, didn't it?  Again, the team clearly DOES NOT CARE WHAT RON WASHINGTON THINKS, SAYS OR DOES.  He has apparently lost all credibility with and influence over the active players.

You can't manage a team if the players don't care what you say.  I'm not saying that because the Rangers lost the next game in a truly pathetic fashion, I'm saying that because the behavior of the players didn't change from before the speech.  They don't care.

Posted by: Ben at 10:08 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Fan wars...

It looks like the "who's to blame" arguments are finally kicking into high gear.

50 losses before the All-Star break will do it, for the record.

I really don't understand the number of people who have no idea what General Managers, Team Presidents, Owners and Coaches do, in a sport that they've ostensibly followed all their lives.

Of course, a lot of people don't understand how time or statistical analysis works, either.

Posted by: Ben at 07:59 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Texas pitcher tries to swing bat, hurts back...

Nick Martinez (who, honestly, shouldn't even be pitching on a big league rotation right now, and hasn't been considered anything more than a depth prospect before jumping from High-A to the Rangers) tweaked a back muscle last week while taking taking batting practice in preparation for today's start against the Mets.  It hasn't improved over the past week and it looks like he's headed for the D.L.

Yep.

Posted by: Ben at 12:13 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Hurled into the sun...

Joe Saunders has been.  Probably.  I support this move.

UPDATE:  Saunders was signed by the Royals.  Which is exactly the sort of move that will probably work out for them.

Saunders had been trolling Rangers fans for months, bitching about not being in the rotation while giving up runs at AA and AAA (after all, he could be giving up runs for the big boys), and claiming repeatedly that he was "on track" and "pulling it all together" and "real progress" was "just around the corner" and we could expect "slightly better mediocrity" "any day now".  However, unlike Colby Lewis, who has exhibited a steadily increasing ability to throw baseballs at strike zones while missing bats, Saunders was quickly moving the other way.  After his last start, in which he gave up way more runs than he pitched innings, Saunders finally came clean and said "I haven't done ****."

What's most worrying is the possibility that the Rangers were just waiting for him to realize how bad he was before dumping him.

Someone made a bet.

Also, RE:  Hurling things into the sun.

Posted by: Ben at 08:03 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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