October 29, 2015

Mike Maddux has chosen to finally accept a managing job with...wait, what?

UPDATE:  The Rangers sent out a note to reporters that they have already interviewed internal candidates Brad Holman, Danny Clark (the Minor League pitching coordinator) and Jeff Andrews (the AA pitching coach).  So this decision was likely made days or weeks ago.  You know, at the same time the other guys were let go.  Guessing withholding the news on Maddux was probably doing him a favor to try to drive up his market.  Would not be surprised if we get an announcement on Maddux taking a job elsewhere soon.

Rangers fans have been expecting for years to lose the club's highly-touted pitching coach Mike Maddux. Reputed to be one of, if not *the* highest paid coach in baseball, fans and writers alike have been waiting for the shoe to drop when Maddux finally accepted the call to manage his own club.

What no-one expected was that Texas would send Maddux packing:


Of course, when Jeff Banister was hired to manage, he was given the option to interview most of the existing coaches and keep any on staff that he felt could do the job he wanted done.  Banister replaced the bench coach and 1st and 3rd base coaches, but kept Magadan as hitting coach, Hawkins as bullpen coach, and Maddux as pitching coach.  However, all three are gone now; Hawkins was informed at the end of the season that Texas wasn't going to renew his contract and Magadan had apparently already discussed leaving with the front office.

The Rangers has already put out a tidbit that the club was open to Maddux returning on a new contract, but was waiting on negotiations while he entertained offers from other clubs.  This bit of news, then, comes as quite a surprise; and leaves fans and apparently beat writers wondering what caused the change.

Maddux's influence has long been a topic of debate among fans.  During Ron Washington's tenure as manager, some beat writers hinted more than once that bullpen management was left entirely or mostly up to Maddux, as well some aspects of pitcher management.  There was never, of course, any real proof of this being true; but that didn't stop Texas fans from using this info in arguments both defending and attacking pitcher management by the Rangers.  This past year, bullpen management certainly changed, leading to a general understanding that Banister was obviously making his own (sometimes confusing or poor) substitutions.  Of course, you can make the argument from every angle with no actual evidence.

To be fair, Maddux's ability to work with pitchers is widely lauded, but not universally supported.  Yu Darvish was at times vocal about his disagreements with Maddux's coaching:  Maddux preached contact pitching over strike outs, and Darvish prefers the K.  Unlike the situation in Anaheim, Texas doesn't have a clear history of busted pitching prospects almost always improving when they leave, but you have to consider the work of the minor leagues coaches as well.  In fact, the favorite going forward for the Rangers position is minor league pitching coach Brad Holman, who has received a lot of praise from younger Texas pitchers for helping them develop their approach.

Hopefully we'll get some more info on why Maddux has been effectively "let go", but like the Washington situation, it may be wise to not expect the story to be told for a long time.

Evan Grant is now reporting that the decision was made the week after the season ended.  Texas immediately offered Maddux a new contract; he declined in order to continue negotiating with other teams.  Something in that process led the Rangers to decide that changing personnel was the superior option to waiting for further negotiations with Mike Maddux.

As Maddux fielded offers from multiple clubs, the Rangers front office came to the conclusion that Maddux was likely leaving for another job.  During meetings to discuss how to replace their pitching coach, Texas leadership came to believe they could improve at the position, and decided to let Mike Maddux know the Rangers were going to pursue other options rather than wait for his decision.  Maddux was reportedly surprised by the decision, which conflicts a bit with Texas claiming he was likely to leave of his on volition.  Interestingly, the few Rangers players who have been interviewed have tempered complimentary farewells with praise for the clubs other pitching coaches.

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October 27, 2015

What do the Rangers need to get better?

That's the real question isn't it?  Rangers news and bloggers are devoting full time now to prognosticating who goes and who stays this offseason, and most of them are quickly reaching the dead end:  the team only has two glaring weaknesses.

Of course, you then have to go to the next step:  Maybe everyone after that is *fine*, but wear can the Rangers get *better*?

Step One :  The Starting Roster

C:  Robinson Chirinos, who may be permanently diminished by a shoulder injury.

1B:  Mitch Moreland LH power, good defense, borderline platoon player against LH.
2B:  Rougie  Here to stay.  Do not feed.
3B:  Adrian Beltre  A national treasure for at least one more season.
SS:  Elvis Andrus Promising return in the second half after a two year absence from productivity.
LF:  ???  Josh Hamilton? Ryan Rua?
CF:  Delino DeShields.  Good defense for a LF.  Good offense for a 4th outfielder.  Good Leonys would be a better fit.
RF:  Shin-soo Choo.  Came up big in the second half, generating over 2WAR of value *after* the ASB.
DH:  Prince Fielder.  Not the best DH in the league, but one of the best.  Any DH that adds positive value has done his job, and Fielder, while overpaid for this duty, was only a tick behind the surprising Kendrys Morales.  May be hurt.  May be tired.  May be done.

P:  Cole Hamels.  Maybe he's more of a reliable #2 in the way Sarmardzija and Shields really aren't.  He's still a bargain at that.
P:  Martin Perez.  Struggled after coming back from TJ, but has the pitchability to stick in the middle of the rotation.
P:  Derek Holland.  After a dominating return from a shoulder injury, Holland quickly fell apart.  Considering Holland depends on the strikeout more than Perez, and has been "just around the corner" for years, his status may be at the back of the rotation for a while.
P:  Chi Chi Gonzales.  Perez without the ability to strike people out.  Extreme contact pitcher who relies entirely on keeping his pitches down.  Needs a lot of polish to stick in the rotation; after six appearances there was enough info on him that he couldn't get anyone out.
P:  Nick Martinez.  Depth pitcher with enough ability to be surprisingly dominant on occasion.
P:  Nick Tepesch.  Unknown factor at this point.  DL'd all year.

RP:  Shawn Tolleson.  Relies on a very good change-up, looked to be losing his edge by the end of the year.  He'll be in the late-inning mix as long as he's healthy.
RP:  Keone Kela.  Closer in waiting, one of three Rangers relievers who throw in triple digits.  Ended season with arm fatigue, but no word about injury yet.
RP:  Jake Diekman.  Another hard throwing reliever.  Has bouts of wildness, but was largely reliable for Texas for months.
RP:  Sam Dyson.  Hit 100 repeatedly.  Gave up two home runs after coming to the Rangers.  In his first appearance, and his last, against Jose Bautista in Game Five.

On that roster, you have two clear problems:  Not enough starting pitching, and Left Field.  Of the two, Left Field *can* be taken care of internally, theoretically.

Hamilton's health should relegate him to a 4th outfielder slot, and he can play the entire field with speed and adequate defense.  He seemed to thrive this year off the bench, delivering several "clutch" performances despite an overall league-average batting line.  Then you could slide DeShields to Left, where his bat is a bit weaker than you would like but his defense is great.  Plus, Hamilton makes up for the power loss by delivering quite a bit for a bench bat and 4th OF.  And finally, you bring Leonys Martin back to CF.  That's the tricky part.  Leonys' offense almost completely disappeared in 2015.  Because of this he only generated .5 WAR in 95 games.  Which means he would have generated just under 1 WAR over the full year.  To compare, Delino delivered 1.3 WAR over 121 games.  It probably would not have been much greater over a full year in Center, his defense drags his value down in that position.

Which is to say, all Leonys has to do to be a better choice in CF is to hit *just a little bit*.  And considering Randal Grichuk was the most valuable CF in baseball, generating 3.1 WAR, the Leonys Martin who generated 2.9 and 3.5 WAR in 2013 and '14 would suddenly be one of the best CF and baseball again.

Of course, Delino DeShields in LF certainly won't be a Yoenis Cespedas, or even an Alex Gordon.  But he could be in Nori Aoki territory, which I think the Rangers would take.

However, before we jump ahead too far; there is another problem with Leonys Martin.  When he failed to impress after returning from a DL stint at the end of the season, he was left off of the playoff roster.  He subsequently refused a request to continue training in the Surprise, AZ training facility to be ready for a roster substitution during the playoffs.  He was reportedly angry with the Rangers for not being included on the ALDS roster and was left out of team introductions before the first home playoff game, while other reserve players were included.  His contract situation is muddled as well.  Martin was signed as a free agent from Cuba, and his contract expires this year.  However, he also qualifies for salary arbitration this year.  I can't find anyone who can explain how that's all going to work.

So Leonys has a proven ability to be one of the best center fielders in the game, but is coming off of a down year at the end of a contract and *should* qualify for higher pay; AND he's currently on the outs with the club, especially new manager Jeff Banister.  It's questionable whether Martin is even with the team next year.  But you can bet Texas is going to try to work this out however they can.  Leonys is worth it.

On the pitching question, there are no high-level pitchers ready to step in to a starting role behind Chi Chi.  Jerad Eickhoff was the closest, but even Texas didn't see him doing what he did when he was inserted into Philadelphia's starting rotation.  Eickhoff was seen as a depth pitcher with back-end potential, not a guy who Philadelphia is probably counting on to hold up the middle of the rotation next year.

And interestingly, Texas hasn't been connected to any position player free agents or trades beyond Catcher Lucroy (see list above).  However, there have been persistent rumors that the Rangers are pursuing trades for Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. If there is any truth to the idea that Texas is still pursuing high-level starting pitching, that would seem to support the idea that the position players are likely all returning or are being replaced from within.  The big problem there is trying to get another right-handed bat into the lineup.  I'll talk about that issue when I write up who could end up being the odd-man-out on the current roster.

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October 23, 2015

That special time of year...

Now that we know who the World Series teams are likely to be, and it's not anybody important to the national sports media, it's time to start talking about who the Yankees are going to buy.

The national sports media loved the Steinbrenner era.  He was such an easy man to hate, but he also established *the* premiere market team that continually operates at or beyond the salary cap.  The Yankees were in on every free agent; the only question was which ones they would sign, thereby creating a trickle-down effect on the rest of the normal teams.

The Yankees don't really work that way anymore, but the media still starts off the off-season with full articles on whether the Yankees will sign this or that free agent.  Today it's Yoenis Cespedas.  Bizarrely, there haven't been many opinions on which pitchers the Yankees will go after.  There usually aren't, actually; the national media is also in love with the idea that New York is an offense-first team, hoarding sluggers at the expense of pitching.

I still maintain, for the record, that it's a miracle Tanaka hasn't succumbed to Tommy John surgery yet.  He just pitched a full season (minus some DL time) with a partially torn UCL.  And contrary to my predictions, he pitched well.  I don't know how he's doing it...although of course, we all know it CAN be done.  Before UCL tears were repairable, numerous pitchers figured out ways to pitch through and around the pain, sometimes for years.  Tanaka could have years of success continuing to pitch just as he has.

But I'm still not betting on it.  He's pitching on borrowed time, and New York needs both pitchers and hitters to stay competitive.


And I know this because every off-season, what New York needs is the first and foremost topic of discussion among the national baseball media.

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October 22, 2015

The Rangers latest top prospect...(?)

Watch out for this Jurickson Profar guy playing in the Arizona Fall League:


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October 21, 2015

Cubs eliminated in four...

A very small part of me is marveling that the Cubs managed to lose four straight to the Mets in the NLCS.  But honestly, the Mets are some kind of bizarro world team right now.  They've taken the standard page from the Giants and the Cardinals of the past decade, in which all of a sudden, completely unheralded players go on extreme tears and completely dominate the game.  Bartolo Colon got the win tonight.  New York dropped him from the rotation multiple times the past two years, because he's just not very good anymore; but all of their pitchers kept getting hurt.

What's going to suck is if the Mets suddenly lose all of this bizarre luck and stomped by Kansas City or Toronto.

A bright point of hope for the Cubs:  they weren't supposed to be a championship team this year; all of their young players were supposed to trickle in over the next couple of years.  The future looks good.

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October 14, 2015

Oh, and another thing or two...

The Rangers are going to do other things this offseason of course, but keep in mind that step one is to add one Yu Darvish and stir...

Also,


Rougned Odor doesn't care what you say.

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2015 Season Over

Texas drops the fifth game of the Division Series 6 - 3 in Toronto.  Featuring a 7th inning in which Rougned odor scored the go-ahead run for Texas on a heads-up, situationally-aware play that lead to Toronto playing the game under protest.  Which was all made moot in the bottom of the seventh when Elvis Andrus bobbled a routine grounder and Mitch Moreland threw short on a double-play ball on the very next play.  And THEN Sam Dyson gave up only his second home run of the year to Jose Bautista, creating the final 6 - 3 score.

Obviously, Toronto will drop the protest.

I'm disappointed, of course; I really wanted Texas to go all the way, just like every other year.  But it's tempered by the fact that, as I've said repeatedly, the Rangers weren't even supposed to be here today.  Certainly I thought they were a better team than most prognosticators gave them credit for at the beginning of the year, but I figured they would finish a game or two over .500.

And even when they won the division, I knew they would have a hard time getting past Toronto.  Toronto is the exact kind of team that is hardest on Texas.  The only possibility the Rangers had was to get after Toronto's middle-of-the-order, which isn't so hot.  Instead, Texas mashed against Price and Stroman, and couldn't do anything against the middle guys.  Texas lost this series in Arlington; game five was just a second chance.

With Texas out, I suppose I have some small interest in how Houston plays out.  I don't think they're actually as good of a team as they're seen to be, but that's just my opinion.  The Cubs are the only team left that I have any real affection for, and those games are probably the only ones I'll continue to listen to.

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October 13, 2015

Congratulations to the Chicago Cubs!

On their first Championship series appearance since 2003.  And doubly because they beat the St. Louis Cardinals to do it!

Chicago is also the first playoff team in 2015 to gain access to the Championship level.

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October 12, 2015

Unbelievable...

Joey Gallo hit the roof at The Ballpark during practice.  This is the second time he's done it in the last few weeks.


(I should stipulate, yes it was a fair ball.)

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October 11, 2015

Winning team problems...

Prior to the third ALDS game at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Jeff Wilson announced on twitter that RHP Nick Martinez, a converted infielder who has figuratively been Texas' "Little Dutch Boy", was being recalled from the team's training facilities in Arizona to be introduced with the team.  Joey Gallo and other "green room" Rangers who are being kept in preparedness in case of serious injury will likely be included as well.  Nick was one of those improbable Cy Young candidates for the first month of the year, maintaining an ERA and WHIP around 1.00.  Once regression hit and he returned to being a depth pitcher who never K's anyone, he continued to pitch to contact and turn in a decent number of quality starts until Derek Holland and Martin Perez returned after the All Star Break.

Not being introduced with the team is former Center Fielder Leonys Martin.  The Cuban was signed in 2010 and went from the Rookie League to AAA by 2012, when he appeared in 24 games for the big club.  He produced 2.9 fWAR in 2013 and 3.5 fWAR in 2014, entirely with his defense.  The bat is league-average at best.  In 2015, his contact and BABIP dropped off significantly, resulting in an offensive hole that his defense couldn't compensate for.  When Delino DeShields, Jr. was substituted for the struggling Leonys, DDJ was able to grab the starting CF job with little difficulty.  Leonys wound up with some minor injury diagnoses that got him a short disabled list stay and a long rehab assignment, during which Leonys failed to impress with either his results or his efforts, according to some observers.  With Drew Stubbs, the Rockies veteran who handled playing deep in Colorado with ease, on the roster as a defensive replacement, Martin was sent to Arizona when the playoffs started to stay prepared as an injury replacement or roster alternative.

However, Rangers fans learned today that Leonys refused the assignment and was angry with the club at being left off of the ALDS roster.  Ergo, Leonys is not being included in the honor roll later today.

Leonys Martin, when healthy, is arguably the best defensive Center Fielder in MLB.  His bat has never been projected very high, but he doesn't have to do much to make up his value.  As bad as his year has been, he still would have been on track to produce 1 fWAR, purely from defense.  Considering he's being paid $3 million per year, that's still great value.  Which means he was likely left off the roster for reasons other than his health.

The Rangers appear to have been on a roll for the past several months getting rid of players that new manager Jeff Banister has designated as not fitting in the clubhouse.  If these reports are remotely accurate, Martin will likely have an interesting off-season.  He was signed as a free-agent and his contract ends this season, but his service time didn't start until 2013, so he has three years of service time as of the end of this season.  As far as I understand it, that means that as part of any application for free agency he can go into salary arbitration with his current club.  I really don't understand for sure how that will work.

Only minutes after the Leonys Martin tweet, a tweet about Lewis Brinson crossed my feed as well.  Brinson has reported to the Arizona Fall League, where he'll play for the Ranger's team.  Brinson is also a true Center Fielder, projects as good as Leonys defensively, and has a bat with a 60 ceiling.  Brinson is still at least another year away, but don't be surprised if he gets a chance in Arlington next year with Martin on the outs.

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October 09, 2015

Damn it, Cubs...

I know it's at Busch.  Just gotta take one game there from the lying, cheating bastards.  Just one.  I know you can do it.

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2 - 0 and back to Arlington...



Although, today, the attitude was displayed by relief pitcher and future closer Keone Kela.  Kela, who in baseball parlance, "pitches fearlessly" and is known for muttering a constant stream of obscenities on the mound to keep himself pumped up, got into a F-bomb match with Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson.  When Donaldson started toward the mound and the benches started to clear, Kela whipped his glove off and started toward Donaldson.

The outcome would have been interesting; Kela outweighs Donaldson, is built like a football player, and has a history of scrapping (successfully, incidentally).

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October 08, 2015

ALDS, one game down...

That the Rangers beat David Price in a post-season game for the fourth time isn't much of a surprise.  Texas, somehow, has a decent record against Price, just as they have the single-best team record against Felix Hernandez.  Less expected was that the offensive damage was done by Robinson Chirinos, who has been on the DL for the past two and half months, Rougned Odor, who slammed a solo home run after being plunked by Price twice (Rougie doesn't get mad, people...well, actually, he does, but he does the revenge thing, too).

Game Two features the Ranger's ace left-hander Cole Hamels, who will likely have to be at his best to handle a Toronto club that's mashed lefties better than righties this year.  Still, Texas is playing with house money in a year that they weren't expected to go this far, so it's all good.

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October 04, 2015

Random things for this season...




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Finished...for now...


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