1B:  Mitch Moreland LH power, good defense, borderline platoon player against LH.

2B:  Rougie  Here to stay.  Do not feed.

3B:  Adrian Beltre  A national treasure for at least one more season.

SS:  Elvis Andrus Promising return in the second half after a two year absence from productivity.

LF:  ???  Josh Hamilton? Ryan Rua?

CF:  Delino DeShields.  Good defense for a LF.  Good offense for a 4th outfielder.  Good Leonys would be a better fit.

RF:  Shin-soo Choo.  Came up big in the second half, generating over 2WAR of value *after* the ASB.

DH:  Prince Fielder.  Not the best DH in the league, but one of the best.  Any DH that adds positive value has done his job, and Fielder, while overpaid for this duty, was only a tick behind the surprising Kendrys Morales.  May be hurt.  May be tired.  May be done.

P:  Cole Hamels.  Maybe he's more of a reliable #2 in the way Sarmardzija and Shields really aren't.  He's still a bargain at that.

P:  Martin Perez.  Struggled after coming back from TJ, but has the pitchability to stick in the middle of the rotation.

P:  Derek Holland.  After a dominating return from a shoulder injury, Holland quickly fell apart.  Considering Holland depends on the strikeout more than Perez, and has been "just around the corner" for years, his status may be at the back of the rotation for a while.

P:  Chi Chi Gonzales.  Perez without the ability to strike people out.  Extreme contact pitcher who relies entirely on keeping his pitches down.  Needs a lot of polish to stick in the rotation; after six appearances there was enough info on him that he couldn't get anyone out.

P:  Nick Martinez.  Depth pitcher with enough ability to be surprisingly dominant on occasion.

P:  Nick Tepesch.  Unknown factor at this point.  DL'd all year.

RP:  Shawn Tolleson.  Relies on a very good change-up, looked to be losing his edge by the end of the year.  He'll be in the late-inning mix as long as he's healthy.

RP:  Keone Kela.  Closer in waiting, one of three Rangers relievers who throw in triple digits.  Ended season with arm fatigue, but no word about injury yet.

RP:  Jake Diekman.  Another hard throwing reliever.  Has bouts of wildness, but was largely reliable for Texas for months.

RP:  Sam Dyson.  Hit 100 repeatedly.  Gave up two home runs after coming to the Rangers.  In his first appearance, and his last, against Jose Bautista in Game Five.

On that roster, you have two clear problems:  Not enough starting pitching, and Left Field.  Of the two, Left Field *can* be taken care of internally, theoretically.

Hamilton's health should relegate him to a 4th outfielder slot, and he can play the entire field with speed and adequate defense.  He seemed to thrive this year off the bench, delivering several "clutch" performances despite an overall league-average batting line.  Then you could slide DeShields to Left, where his bat is a bit weaker than you would like but his defense is great.  Plus, Hamilton makes up for the power loss by delivering quite a bit for a bench bat and 4th OF.  And finally, you bring Leonys Martin back to CF.  That's the tricky part.  Leonys' offense almost completely disappeared in 2015.  Because of this he only generated .5 WAR in 95 games.  Which means he would have generated just under 1 WAR over the full year.  To compare, Delino delivered 1.3 WAR over 121 games.  It probably would not have been much greater over a full year in Center, his defense drags his value down in that position.

Which is to say, all Leonys has to do to be a better choice in CF is to hit *just a little bit*.  And considering Randal Grichuk was the most valuable CF in baseball, generating 3.1 WAR, the Leonys Martin who generated 2.9 and 3.5 WAR in 2013 and '14 would suddenly be one of the best CF and baseball again.

Of course, Delino DeShields in LF certainly won't be a Yoenis Cespedas, or even an Alex Gordon.  But he could be in Nori Aoki territory, which I think the Rangers would take.

However, before we jump ahead too far; there is another problem with Leonys Martin.  When he failed to impress after returning from a DL stint at the end of the season, he was left off of the playoff roster.  He subsequently refused a request to continue training in the Surprise, AZ training facility to be ready for a roster substitution during the playoffs.  He was reportedly angry with the Rangers for not being included on the ALDS roster and was left out of team introductions before the first home playoff game, while other reserve players were included.  His contract situation is muddled as well.  Martin was signed as a free agent from Cuba, and his contract expires this year.  However, he also qualifies for salary arbitration this year.  I can't find anyone who can explain how that's all going to work.

So Leonys has a proven ability to be one of the best center fielders in the game, but is coming off of a down year at the end of a contract and *should* qualify for higher pay; AND he's currently on the outs with the club, especially new manager Jeff Banister.  It's questionable whether Martin is even with the team next year.  But you can bet Texas is going to try to work this out however they can.  Leonys is worth it.

On the pitching question, there are no high-level pitchers ready to step in to a starting role behind Chi Chi.  Jerad Eickhoff was the closest, but even Texas didn't see him doing what he did when he was inserted into Philadelphia's starting rotation.  Eickhoff was seen as a depth pitcher with back-end potential, not a guy who Philadelphia is probably counting on to hold up the middle of the rotation next year.

And interestingly, Texas hasn't been connected to any position player free agents or trades beyond Catcher Lucroy (see list above).  However, there have been persistent rumors that the Rangers are pursuing trades for Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. If there is any truth to the idea that Texas is still pursuing high-level starting pitching, that would seem to support the idea that the position players are likely all returning or are being replaced from within.  The big problem there is trying to get another right-handed bat into the lineup.  I'll talk about that issue when I write up who could end up being the odd-man-out on the current roster.

Posted by: Wonderduck at November 03, 2015 09:00 PM (a12rG)

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2015 11:21 PM (DRaH+)

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