This important:


Image from SBNation.

Analysis:  Those 2nd round picks are guys that probably should have or could have gone in the 1st round.  1st round picks tend to be players with one or more incredible "tools", the fundamental skills of playing baseball.  The ability to hit the ball frequently and consistently, the ability to hit for power, quickness and fielding ability, speed and arm strength.  The two hit tools can get a player drafted in the 1st round on their own if they're good enough, but usually a player has to have a couple of these tools in complementary combinations, ranked highly enough, to warrant a #1 pick.  There are usually only a dozen high school or college players like this every year, and several of those will be borderline.

After the sure-fire high-quality tool players are gone, clubs usually turn to highly athletic players with excellent work ethic and preferably good attitudes.  These are the guys who are most likely to develop into a major-league-ready player.  There are a lot of high school and college players that could be perceived in that way, and they usually draft in the order of least flaws/best tools downward.  However, it's not unusual for a guy with excellent drive and work ethic but low-quality tools to work his way up.  Notably, former Ranger 2nd baseman Ian Kinsler was a 15th round draft pick who wasn't particular noted for any outstanding skill, but worked up to be an all-star 2B with a good hit tool, moderate power, very good defense and good baserunning abilities.

UPDATE:  Something I forgot to mention.  The 1st Round/2nd Round thing?  That directly illustrates why the "supplemental 1st round pick" a team gets if they lose a free agent is valued so highly.  Offering a free agent a qualifying offer is basically WAR insurance.

Posted by: Ben at 01:56 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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