December 18, 2013
Is a bargain good enough?
Over at the soon-to-be-defunct Shutdown Inning, Peter Ellwood writes that Jon Daniels did a fantastic job signing Geovany Soto and J. P. Arencibia to catch for Texas next year, and it was a big mistake.
I'm pretty sure I disagree with the second part, but Ellwood has a point. The Rangers really need more offense from the Catcher position, and neither Soto nor Arencibia provide an upgrade. Are they an efficient catching solution, re: money for WAR? Oh, hell yes. $4.8 million for a pair of catchers that will probably generate between 2 and 3 WAR next year. That's a steal, especially on the free agent market.
The $64,000 question is: "Is that good enough?" Ellwood argues that on a team that needed significant offensive upgrades at several positions to get back to World Series contention, the Rangers should have gone after Brian McCann (likely to generate around 4 WAR next year and a serious offensive threat), Dioner Navarro (bad defensively, but good at the plate) or any number of other free agent catchers who could contribute more with the bat than Soto and/or Arencibia. I personally favored trading for Chris Ianetta, even though it wasn't clear Los Angeles was really willing to deal him.
My argument at Shutdown Inning was that Soto and Arencibia have a good chance of generating 3 WAR, and that getting the extra 1 WAR McCann would provide would be a massive overpay; money that could be spent elsewhere. Hell, at $7 million per WAR, if Soto and Arencibia only generate 2 WAR to McCann's 4 you just about break even.
In other words, as long as the Rangers spend the $13-odd million they saved by not signing McCann on another player that gives them 2 WAR or better, they have at least equaled the McCann deal, and could actually beat it.
UPDATE: I knew something was bugging me about this section. Add: And technically, you could throw the $9 million saved on top of the $13-odd mentioned above. Of course, that bonus money is only good for this year; Soto and Arencibia could well command more money next year.
And *that* is how you make efficient signings work for you.
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I'm pretty sure I disagree with the second part, but Ellwood has a point. The Rangers really need more offense from the Catcher position, and neither Soto nor Arencibia provide an upgrade. Are they an efficient catching solution, re: money for WAR? Oh, hell yes. $4.8 million for a pair of catchers that will probably generate between 2 and 3 WAR next year. That's a steal, especially on the free agent market.
The $64,000 question is: "Is that good enough?" Ellwood argues that on a team that needed significant offensive upgrades at several positions to get back to World Series contention, the Rangers should have gone after Brian McCann (likely to generate around 4 WAR next year and a serious offensive threat), Dioner Navarro (bad defensively, but good at the plate) or any number of other free agent catchers who could contribute more with the bat than Soto and/or Arencibia. I personally favored trading for Chris Ianetta, even though it wasn't clear Los Angeles was really willing to deal him.
My argument at Shutdown Inning was that Soto and Arencibia have a good chance of generating 3 WAR, and that getting the extra 1 WAR McCann would provide would be a massive overpay; money that could be spent elsewhere. Hell, at $7 million per WAR, if Soto and Arencibia only generate 2 WAR to McCann's 4 you just about break even.
In other words, as long as the Rangers spend the $13-odd million they saved by not signing McCann on another player that gives them 2 WAR or better, they have at least equaled the McCann deal, and could actually beat it.
UPDATE: I knew something was bugging me about this section. Add: And technically, you could throw the $9 million saved on top of the $13-odd mentioned above. Of course, that bonus money is only good for this year; Soto and Arencibia could well command more money next year.
And *that* is how you make efficient signings work for you.
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