An argument that's fallen by the wayside the last couple of months is whether Jurickson Profar is going to be the star many predicted.  Profar had a relatively disappointing 2013 as the Rangers utility infielder, swaying the opinion of many in favor of trading him while he still had some prospect shine left.  Now that Profar is likely to be taking Ian Kinsler's place at 2nd Base, it's worth wondering what we're going to get.


Jurickson Profar was billed as Elvis Andrus with more patience and a bigger bat.  Profar's defensive skills aren't in question; we've all seen him make plays at short that only elite defensive shortstops like Andrus can make.  He's got all the defensive tools, and apparently the right frame-of-mind and "baseball sense" to make it work on the field.

So, elite defensive middle infielder is a great start, he would be valuable to a team if that's all he was.  But Profar was supposed to be so much more.  He was scouted as having power and patience, and after a good-but-not-great stint at Low-A ball in 2010, he showed it off.  In 2011, Profar hit .286/.390/.483 at High-A, with a 12.6% walk rate and 12.2% K rate.  That's when people really started getting excited.  In 2012, at AA Frisco, Jurickson .281/.368/.452 with an 11.7% walk rate and 14.1% K rate.  Surely a slight fall-off, but nothing that would keep him from a promotion to AAA Round Rock the following year.  At the end of the season, Profar was called up to play in 9 games; after hitting a home run in his first plate appearance, he appeared to hit a brick wall, batting .176/.176/.471 with 0 walks and a 23.5% strikeout rate.

But that was a very small sample size, and most people felt it just went to show that Profar either needed some time in AAA, or a full-time field position to get comfortable.

In 2013, Jurickson only spent a little over a month with AAA Round Rock, batting .278/.330/.478 with a 12.7% walk rate and 14.5% K rate.  Barely off of his AA stats, and enough for the Rangers to feel he was ready for big league action.  After being called up for the second time, Profar appeared in 87 games for the Rangers, batting .234/.308/.336 with an 8% walk rate and a 19.4% strikeout rate.  Once again, Major League pitchers were able to miss Jurickson's bat at a much higher rate than in the minor leagues, and Profar clearly demonstrated less patience.

So, Rangers fans want to know, what's wrong with Jurickson Profar?  Is he a bust?  Is he just waiting to break out?  Well, Keith Law still thinks Profar has what it takes.  In fact, Law thinks Profar will be a superstar.  Ben Dieter at Nolan Writin' includes Jurickson on his list of possible Rangers stars.

I can't tell you if Profar will a superstar or not, and I suspect that even though he is very likely to be a star, he may never be appreciated as such.

Let me 'splain.

You guys remember Ian Kinsler, right?  Ian spent most of his career with the Rangers drawing as many complaints as compliments; he was a mediocre defender, a boneheaded baserunner, only a bit above average at the plate, and had bad body language and an unfriendly manner.  However, statistically, he was also one of the best 2nd basemen in baseball.  No, really.  I think it was either Newberg or Adam J. Morris who wrote an article defending Kinsler earlier this year, and detailed his elite baserunning, excellent defense and way above average offensive value.  Anyway, for his career Ian has a 9.6% walk rate (he fluctuated high and low, with little correlation to good/bad seasons) an 11.9% K rate (mostly consistent) and is hitting .273/.349/.454.  That's about .800 OPS, and fangraphs lists a weighted On Base Average of .351.  That's pretty good for a second baseman.

Let's say Profar manages to bring his AAA performance to the Rangers next year.  That gives you an OPS around .800 and his weighted On Base Average is .365. Ian Kinsler was a star.  Profar would arguably be a star if he managed to replicate Kinsler's performance, and there is reason to believe he could do it.

Now, for Profar to be a superstar, he would have to replicate his low A/AA performance at the major league level.  This is not terribly common.  Mike Trout is one of the very few prospects who maintained a consistent performance all the way to the big time.  Trout crushed the ball at every level; variances do exist but are largely trivial.  How much do you want to argue about a 1.000 OPS vs. .900?  Or when his OBP is a little UNDER .400 instead of over it?  No, Mike Trout is a rare beast.  Profar's early excellence doesn't reflect a phenom like Trout as much as a kid who was ready to play at a higher level.  That level just wasn't higher than AA, then; and wasn't higher than AAA a year later.

Of course, that could be a promising trend.  Thus far, Jurickson Profar has been self-leveling.  His high-side, the lazy comp for ability and tools, is easily Ian Kinsler; and that's star level.  He's got the ability to be Robinson Cano.  In 2004, the Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees for a pack of players.  They could have had, as part of that group, either Joaquin Arias or Robinson Cano.  No one knows, now, why the Rangers took Arias; the best bet is that Arias was considered a better defender while being two years younger.  Even now Cano is considered a poor to almost average defender.  But the bat was there; despite his defense Cano was a top prospect in 2003.

In Jurickson Profar, the Rangers *may* have Elvis Andrus' defense and Robbie Cano's bat.

And that would be a superstar.

Posted by: Ben at 10:45 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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