(This was originally posted on my personal blog about a month before being posted here, which is why it seems to be out of the timeline...)

So, before I got around to doing another post on the Rangers' off-season antics, they went and blew everyone away. They also solved issues #2 and #3 on the "To Do" list for the offseason. On November 20th, Texas traded their home-grown all-star second baseman, Ian Kinsler, to the Detroit Tigers for their overpaid elite-slugging all-star first baseman Prince Fielder. Kinsler has been a borderline-elite defender at second, has plus speed on the basepaths and can hit for average and power. He's had two 30-30 seasons and is a fan favorite, but entering his age 32 season, Ian has had two consecutive down years offensively. He has also had some -unusual- problems maintaining focus while running and occasionally on defense. There was a minor story published last off-season about Kinsler having ADHD and having had to switch medicine at the start of 2012 (there were some ADHD meds that were outlawed as performance enhancers around that time).

Prince Fielder was pursued by Texas when he entered free-agency two years ago, but wouldn't offer the kind of contract that Detroit and a couple of other teams were willing to pay. Fielder has been an elite-hitter with plus power his entire career, but is a very slow runner and, statistically, the worst first baseman in baseball. While Fielder passes the "eye" test, at least to the level of "acceptable", probable second baseman Jurickson Profar will have to give extra consideration to backing Fielder up, and whoever lands in right field for the Rangers next year (most likely Alex Rios or Leonys Martin) better be speedsters able to move back constantly, because they will have to play shallow to cover Fielder. In Prince's defense, within his narrow range, he's an excellent defender. His range, however is his height plus the length of his forearm.

However, what the Rangers didn't need was a plus prospect (Profar) riding the bench every day. Profar's defense is borderline elite *now*, but his bat is league average. He's not quite as speedy as Kinsler, but he's no slouch, and should be good for at least 15 - 20 stolen bases per year.

The Rangers also didn't need Mitch Moreland holding down first base again. Moreland has been about as good a defender as most first baseman are, but his bat is about half what Texas needs from the position, especially with a light-hitting outfield. Moreland allegedly has a good arm but limited range, which means he could start providing his twenty-five home runs per year from left field. Or, maybe he backs up first base and serves as the primary DH. Moreland has power, but like former Texas first basemen Justin Smoak and Chris Davis, it's a homerun or nothing.

Moving forward, it looks like Texas is still in on at least one more big addition. While Prince Fielder's contract is embarrassing, Kinsler was on the highest rail for most non-superstar free agents: $16 million. However, after this year Kinsler's contract deflates, making it one of the most club-friendly contracts in the majors. Fielder keeps getting paid his ridiculous salary, however, which is why Detroit will be sending $30 million in salary relief to Texas from 2017 - 2020. This means Texas gets Fielder for under $20 million per year. Still possibly too much, but arguably how much Fielder would get right now on the market. And, subtracting out Kinsler's salary, we see that Texas has only added $4 million to the budget this year. That gives the Ranger's $17 million to $20 million left on their projected salary budget.

What will Jon Daniels do with that? Let's find out.

The Rangers do not need starting pitching or relievers. If they can make a deal for a good starting pitcher, they will, and it's possible that the Tampa Bay Rays have actually initiated trade talks regarding David Price for Mitch Moreland plus who knows who else. I think the Rays plan to attempt an improvement project with Moreland like Baltimore did with Chris Davis (spend a few months with a new batting coach and become an elite hitter). And you have to admit, the Rays know talent like John Pinette knows bacon. The thing is, Texas knows they missed something with Davis. I guarantee you no one on the coaching staff or in the front office is sitting around saying "Oh, well. Better luck next time." By now the Rangers know what the missed and how they missed it. Whether they could have made Davis and elite hitter is another matter entirely, but you can bet they've investigated the issue. Now, Chris Davis as is wouldn't go straight up for David Price, so you can bet there are a couple of other prospects on the list. Texas could probably stand to trade another middle-infielder, but there aren't any batting prospects that Texas would want to lose, and they got burned trading a pitching prospect last season. There's one guy they would probably trade. Has no stuff and no power, but get's people out. Damnedest thing you ever saw. The Rays would love him.

Anyway, I don't think that's gonna happen. Don't need infielders now. We've got Beltre, Andrus, Profar and Fielder; with a plethora of talented middle infielders still in the minors.

It wouldn't hurt if at least one of the outfielders was a power bat. Texas ended the year with Gentry in left, Martin in center and Rios in right. Martin and Rios are both good for 10 - 20 homeruns per year, but Gentry has almost no power at all. All three are good contact hitters and should hit .285 - .290 reliably. All three are plus-level speedsters as well; all three should get around thirty stolen bases per year. Moreland could reliably add 25 homeruns from the outfield, which doesn't seem like much until you remember that Nelson Cruz was usually only good for 25 most years. Most of the free agent outfielders available this year are going to get $12 - $15 million per year, and most of them aren't significantly better than Mitch Moreland. This market needs to develop more, and if the Rangers acquire someone for the outfield I suspect it will be via trade.

So, do the Rangers need a catcher? In fact, they DO. Geovany Soto is a decent but unexceptional backstop, who also happens to be Yu Darvish's preferred battery mate. So that's settled. There happens to be a premier catcher on the market, who is supposedly interested in coming to Texas, and who will probably get $15 million or so per year. Texas also happens to have a plus-level catching prospect at High-A ball who has plus power and patience but poor contact skills, good game-calling but mediocre stopping and positioning, and elite-level defense reminiscent of [looks both ways, lowers voice and whispers] Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez.

So, who wouldn't want Brian McCann around to mentor Jorge Alfaro? I predict that the Rangers sign McCann at any AAV under $18 million.

UPDATE: Apparently the Rangers don't want McCann at any AAV under $18 million. Well, I was against signing McCann before I was for it; you know how spending mad money can ramp up. It will probably be a while before we find out why the Rangers wouldn't go for what McCann was expected to get all along. Time to return to my original position of trading something marginal to the Angels for Chris Ianetta. They need bullpen help; I can dig up a couple of middle-relievers with low ERA and terrible peripherals; that seems to be Anaheim's speed.

Posted by: Ben at 09:36 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 1282 words, total size 8 kb.