The Yankees gave STUPID money to Masahiro Tanaka.  This is a guy who *might* have the upside to be a #2 rotation guy, but has a high-mileage arm and only one plus pitch.  He'll probably be the #3 or #4 pitcher and he's making more per year than all but a handful of pitchers in baseball.

Here's my theory.  The Yankees, and possibly the Dodgers, are trying to drive the price up on pitching.  These two teams are trying to create an environment where only the richest teams can afford the best pitchers.  If, in a couple of years, Yu Darvish wants $30 million AAV, there are only two teams who will give it to him.  And they will.


Incidentally, I think that is a big part of why the Rangers suddenly went into "win now" on the free agent market.  Choo and Fielder are contributors for the next 2 or 3 years, and then one of them probably get's traded.  Texas will eat a lot of contract to trade one of these guys for a couple of prospects.  But those prospects will be trying to win without Yu Darvish, because he probably won't be in Texas five years from now.  And you don't get one of the best five pitchers in baseball every day.  There is no "ace-in-waiting" in the Texas farm system.  Cody Buckel was the closest Texas had, but he developed the yips last year and right now everyone is just hoping he'll still be playing baseball at the end of the year.  Luke Jackson and Chi Chi Gonzales *may* end up being TotR prospects, but they aren't right now.  This is why Detroit and Texas keep trading up, and why L.A. and Seattle are broken organizations.  Oakland is Oakland, and they're in a "make or break" year.  Which is to say, either the out-of-character moves Billy Beane has made this off-season will help them to the World Series, or will drop them to third place.  All appearances are that Pujols and Hamilton will be better in 2014 than they were last year, so even with poor pitching the Angels should be able to shoot for 86-90 wins.  Oakland has been an 88-89 win team on paper, and they're worse this year, but they've certainly outperformed expectations.  Texas is easily a 90-win team, so we may see a real log-jam at the end of the season.

No, Seattle won't be there.

Anyway, here's some news:

Sporting News says the A-Rod 60 Minutes piece was pure MLB propaganda.

Swingin' A's thinks the Athletics will reach the ALCS next year, because of Craig Gentry.  Look, I love Gentry.  I've got the jersey.  But I guarantee you Jon Daniels didn't trade away Gentry because he forgot the guy can run and play defense better than almost anyone.

Oh, they also think Sonny Gray will be a dominant pitcher.  I'd put more money on that.  Sure, he's basically a shiny, new Bud Norris, but that's not *bad*.

So, if you wanted a #4 or #5 pitcher but didn't want to pay Tanaka money, how about this guy from Korea?

Rob Neyer points out that "Japanese Pitcher" shouldn't be a euphamism for Daisuke Matsuzaka's failure to meet expectations, but for the overall level of excellence that Japanese pitchers have brought to MLB.

Jon Daniels says the Rangers have plenty of options to replace Derek Holland in the rotation, but all of them have questionable health or uncertain skills.

Gerry Fraley writes that Texas is looking at some free-agent lefties, namely Paul Maholm and Bruce Chen, to replace Holland.  I wrote on another website (as a comment) that the single most likely (affordable) option to match Holland's level of performance is already on the rotation, Matt Harrison.  Almost any other affordable option will be a likely downgrade.  Given that, I think the Rangers pick up Maholm if the deal is right.

Clayton Kershaw got paid, which is bad news for Rangers.  Because Clayton is from the Dallas area, and Rangers fans were starting to fantasize about adding him to the Rangers rotation next year.  It could still happen, of course...if the Dodgers falldowngoboom, Kershaw *might* be traded for different pieces.

Beyond the Box Score looks for the best fourth outfielder in baseball, and finds Craig Gentry.  I'm starting to get a bit peeved that Gentry was "just another fourth outfielder" until Billy Beane blessed him with a magical A's contract, wherein Oakland gave up a seemingly valuable piece (a high-ranking power outfield prospect with a bit of speed) for an aging speedster who can't hit much.  Logically, Gentry *must* be unaccountedly awesome.  Sure, he's good at what he does and one of my favorite players, but he's not gonna get you to a World Series.  *see above

Crawfish Boxes publishes an open letter to Bud Selig about the Hall of Fame voting process and the PED era of baseball.  Worth a read.

New York Magazine discovers that the "bribery" accusation by MLB against Alex Rodriguez doesn't hold water.  And they didn't have to look hard to prove it, which supports the argument that MLB doesn't really have a hard case against Rodriguez, just allegations; and Bud Selig wants to prove that he got rid of steroids in baseball.

U.S.S. Mariner discovers at what value signing Nelson Cruz makes sense.  $10 million AAV/3 years max.  I have to admit I was ready to give him more than that earlier in the year, before the market demonstrated that good-but-not-great hitters who can't play defense were going dirt cheap this year while good-but-not-great pitchers were luxury items you can't afford.

So what's going on with the Cubs?  The only moves they've entertained have been dumping talent to get more prospects for their fairly-well-stocked farm system.  So they're rebuilding.  But then they were supposedly all-in on Tanaka.  I guess they were looking at Tanaka as a young pitcher who would anchor the rotation for years.  But that's just a guess.

Can the Astros make the playoffs this year?  Numerically, NO.  But they can win 65 - 75 games.

Darren Oliver has returned to the Rangers, probably for the last time.  I have a special place in my heart for Darren Oliver.  He started out with the Rangers, and he was the first player for the team that *I* knew about before my Dad did.

David Shoenfield ranks the top ten pitching rotations in baseball.  Texas is at number 10, although it probably would have been one or two slots higher with a healthy Derek Holland.

Posted by: Ben at 01:52 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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