November 07, 2015
The wildest speculation...
No, it's not about Texas trading another top prospect, mlb controllable pitching and a couple of lottery tickets for Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. Those are pie-in-sky deals anyway. Here's one that might actually make sense.
Let's suppose the Texas Rangers won the bid to negotiate with Byung-ho Park. The posting process is designed to heavily incentivize getting a deal done, so we can then further speculate that Park will be signed to a major league contract. It could be a minor-league contract, but you usually only see that with South and Central American players.
So, we're going to say that if that happens, then the Rangers are planning for Park to be the starting 1B in 2016. That means that Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder both face reduced playing time. For now, let's assume that Texas believes he'll be an every day player. That means that Moreland is the default bench 1B/DH, while Fielder plays DH most days.
HOWEVER, Mitch Moreland is an attractive trade offer for the Rangers. He's in his last year of arbitration and made $3 million last year. Moreland is a good bet to generate right at 1 fWAR of value, but is also coming off his best major league season. He generated 2.1 fWAR, hit 23 HR for the second time in his career, and was healthy the entire year for the first time ever. The Rangers could get a legitimate minor prospect and some depth trading him this Winter. That gives you Park as your every day 1B, Prince Fielder as a backup 1B and full-time DH.
HOWEVER, Jeff Banister has stated repeatedly that he favors multi-tool players (not multi-position players, to be clear). He wants guys who know how to be an asset on the bases regardless of their speed. He wants smart defenders. He wants guys who can hit strategically. Fielder made some major adjustments to his batting game this year, leading to a guy who can hit for specific outcomes and not just power. However, his defense and baserunning are both at the bottom of the league rankings. That means Prince Fielder's only real job is to be the #3 hitter. When fully healthy, he's probably still an elite hitter for all that, but maybe the Rangers are better overall with a healthy Josh Hamilton in that position. And, of course, Texas isn't exactly enamored with Prince's contract.
Texas would have to eat a lot of that contract to move Fielder. Someone would love to have Fielder at $10 - $12 million per year, even for five more years. Heck, Texas would love to have Fielder for five years at $10 - $12 million per year. But that's not an option. Prince makes $24 million per year over the next five years. Detroit pays $6 million per year starting next year, taking the contract down to $18 million per year. So let's say Texas passes on the $6 million per year from Detroit to a new team, and adds their own $6 million per year over five years. The important part of that is that Texas gets back $12 million per year, which likely pays Park's salary. And possibly his posting fee.
End result: Texas gets a RH power bat and good defensive 1B, a minor prospect, some minor league depth and a lottery ticket without affecting the major league salary. The Rangers may not be able to literally replace Fielder's bat in the three hole, but they can easily replace his 1.6 fWAR.
Biggest negative: Prince has, by all accounts, been an awesome presence in the dugout and the clubhouse. Despite the neck injury that ended his season early in 2014 and possibly affected his second-half performance in 2015, his has been a fun comeback story with the Rangers. A big part of me really doesn't want to send him packing after only two years. And to be honest, I don't think Texas *will* send him packing. I suspect Moreland is traded this Winter, with Texas viewing his strong 2015 as an outlier; predicting future performance as a decreasingly effective 1B and a bat that works better in a platoon. Add to that the possibility of getting even one prospect added to the system, and I think it's too attractive a deal to pass up.
UPDATE: One Rangers reporter is reporting now that the Rangers did not have the winning bid to negotiate with Byung-ho Park. So I move on to plan B: would the Rangers consider moving both Moreland or Fielder for a couple of years of Mike Napoli at 1B? Napoli's defense at first is comparable to Moreland's, but Napoli's bat has suffered vs. RHP. Napoli was used mostly in a platoon with Moreland after he re-joined the Rangers, and a Moreland/Napoli platoon could potentially create a 2 - 3 WAR 1B for cheap. Of course, there's that roster spot for the third player on the roster limited to 1B/DH...
Let's suppose the Texas Rangers won the bid to negotiate with Byung-ho Park. The posting process is designed to heavily incentivize getting a deal done, so we can then further speculate that Park will be signed to a major league contract. It could be a minor-league contract, but you usually only see that with South and Central American players.
So, we're going to say that if that happens, then the Rangers are planning for Park to be the starting 1B in 2016. That means that Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder both face reduced playing time. For now, let's assume that Texas believes he'll be an every day player. That means that Moreland is the default bench 1B/DH, while Fielder plays DH most days.
HOWEVER, Mitch Moreland is an attractive trade offer for the Rangers. He's in his last year of arbitration and made $3 million last year. Moreland is a good bet to generate right at 1 fWAR of value, but is also coming off his best major league season. He generated 2.1 fWAR, hit 23 HR for the second time in his career, and was healthy the entire year for the first time ever. The Rangers could get a legitimate minor prospect and some depth trading him this Winter. That gives you Park as your every day 1B, Prince Fielder as a backup 1B and full-time DH.
HOWEVER, Jeff Banister has stated repeatedly that he favors multi-tool players (not multi-position players, to be clear). He wants guys who know how to be an asset on the bases regardless of their speed. He wants smart defenders. He wants guys who can hit strategically. Fielder made some major adjustments to his batting game this year, leading to a guy who can hit for specific outcomes and not just power. However, his defense and baserunning are both at the bottom of the league rankings. That means Prince Fielder's only real job is to be the #3 hitter. When fully healthy, he's probably still an elite hitter for all that, but maybe the Rangers are better overall with a healthy Josh Hamilton in that position. And, of course, Texas isn't exactly enamored with Prince's contract.
Texas would have to eat a lot of that contract to move Fielder. Someone would love to have Fielder at $10 - $12 million per year, even for five more years. Heck, Texas would love to have Fielder for five years at $10 - $12 million per year. But that's not an option. Prince makes $24 million per year over the next five years. Detroit pays $6 million per year starting next year, taking the contract down to $18 million per year. So let's say Texas passes on the $6 million per year from Detroit to a new team, and adds their own $6 million per year over five years. The important part of that is that Texas gets back $12 million per year, which likely pays Park's salary. And possibly his posting fee.
End result: Texas gets a RH power bat and good defensive 1B, a minor prospect, some minor league depth and a lottery ticket without affecting the major league salary. The Rangers may not be able to literally replace Fielder's bat in the three hole, but they can easily replace his 1.6 fWAR.
Biggest negative: Prince has, by all accounts, been an awesome presence in the dugout and the clubhouse. Despite the neck injury that ended his season early in 2014 and possibly affected his second-half performance in 2015, his has been a fun comeback story with the Rangers. A big part of me really doesn't want to send him packing after only two years. And to be honest, I don't think Texas *will* send him packing. I suspect Moreland is traded this Winter, with Texas viewing his strong 2015 as an outlier; predicting future performance as a decreasingly effective 1B and a bat that works better in a platoon. Add to that the possibility of getting even one prospect added to the system, and I think it's too attractive a deal to pass up.
Posted by: Ben at
10:52 AM
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