Texas Baseball Town

May 19, 2016

Simple Trend Analysis Part One: The Offense

Who wants to do some trend line analysis? Don't lie to me; no one wants to do trend line analysis. Unfortunately, I've already created the charts, so you get to look at them.

Trend line analysis can be useful for some things, less useful for others. What we're hoping to see here is evidence for quality play, or maybe justification for the 'eye tests' we make every game. We also looking at how Small Sample Size can really skew numbers. Note that the very last number in the chart is the season number. This will skew the line a bit, but it skews it toward the season-long calculation. This provides a comparison between the trend line and the overall production.

For lack of a better way to organize, I'll present these in alphabetical order.

After an incredibly hot start, Beltre suffered a slump three weeks in, which dragged him down to "average" status before some recent upticks. The explosive bat is on display, but he'll have to avoid the slumps or extend the streaks to maintain a wRC+ well above average. Because it's Beltre, the almost flat trend line isn't as concerning as the line being centered around "100", rather than "115", "125", or "135".

Grand slams can only do so much, and Wilson's trend line is representative of most catchers: he hits home runs and not much else. Still, the trend appears to be headed toward stabilizing at "100", which is pretty good for replacement catchers.

Another familiar stable, jagged pattern. Holaday seems to be more consistent than Wilson with the bat; so if all other metrics are reasonably consistent, we might see Holaday behind the plate a bit more. I wouldn't put money on it or anything, though.

I included Delino so we could see if he was doing as bad as the eye test said he was. And the stats, to be fair. You can see that trend line heading toward zero. You can see the extended streaks of games at -100 (-100 means "zero", BTW).

How important are walk-off home runs?

This important. The top chart has "the Home Run". The bottom chart excludes it.

Elvis. I think this confirms the eye test. He's fallen off, but he isn't performing terribly. I wouldn't be surprised if his production stabilizes just under "100". That would probably be "good Elvis".

Wow. Ian Desmond is for real. He is performing consistently, at a high level, and over an extended period of time.

Mitch is producing around league average right now. And unfortunately, there isn't a lot of boom in his bat.

Yes, Nomar is trending down to league average. That's mostly because of the hot start, but he's had more games recently where he isn't being productive with the bat. Fairly consistent with the arrival of a new hitter; there is, as they say, "a book" on him now.

I hate to say it, but for all of the people talking about Fielder showing signs of life with the bat...no he's not.

Despite the recent slump, Rougie is still trending up.

Rua needs to do more than he has. I'm worried that his production since he became the full-time left fielder has actually dropped, but that's only a few games worth of data. He was far more valuable off the bench than Hanser, who's value as a bench bat has been very negative.

Texas lost one of it's two biggest producers with Rougie's suspension, and Adrian and Elvis are slumping. This is putting the weight of the offense on the rest of the team, which is for the most part producing right around league average. Other than Fielder, the Rangers don't have a lot of "ouch" in the lineup, but they have way to much "meh". Thankfully, the trends behind Rua, Wilson and Holaday are indicating at least the possibility of greater production at the bottom of the order. Mazara stabilizing his minor slide would help a lot, too; he provides the most stable presence at the top of the order while Choo is gone.

Coming soon: we'll look at the rotation and the bullpen.

Posted by: Ben at 05:44 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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