January 08, 2016
Cardinals fans everywhere shocked; rest of baseball world says, "duh."
Posted by Ben Menix on Friday, January 8, 2016
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December 21, 2015
This. This is, basically, what I was going to write in a follow-up to my initial post on Matt Bush and the Rangers.
Posted by Ben Menix on Monday, December 21, 2015
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December 18, 2015
Scouts say Bush probably has no future as a starter at this point, but a quality fastball could fast-track him into the bullpen. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
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However, the dollar amount and one-year term seems to indicate that the Rangers probably intend to get him signed regardless of the outcome of the physical. Probably more an issue of standard procedure and making sure there isn't anything *else* wrong that needs to be fixed before next season.
I was wrong about this, unless something comes to light after the physical. I thought this deal would be a repeat of last year, when Colby was reported to be disappointed with the Rangers' offer and sought out other contracts, only to eventually sign for one year/$4 million. This one year/$6 million deal is right in line with Lewis's worth minus discounts for health and regression: his STEAMER projection of 1.1 fWAR next year is certainly dragged up from normal progression by his 2.6 fWAR 2015 which you have to consider an outlier at this stage of his career.
Still, considering the contracts that similarly-aged and similarly-talented (and less talented) pitchers have received this year, a lot of observers were wondering of Lewis could actually command deal of $16m over 2 years. Surely *somebody* was willing to go 2/$10. I don't personally believe the "home team player discount" concept is a real, going concern for most players; although Lewis fits the profile of someone who would do such a thing. He's at the end of his career one way or another; he was drafted by the Rangers, and Texas is the team that gambled on him being able to lead a rotation when he came back from Japan.
On the other hand, that's been the narrative for three years now. Colby is cheap because Colby wants to be in Texas. Since coming back from multiple surgeries, Colby has been paid a relative pittance for the value he has generated. This year being the exception, I can't imagine Colby turned down offers at value to pitch for Texas cheaply the past few years...and that indicates that the market for Lewis was never strong.
The article notes that the signing, maybe even the physical, won't actually happen until next year. So, we have to consider that there could still be drama ahead. But I hope not. Colby is a solid back-end starter, and a Texas Ranger.
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December 14, 2015
That's a different issue from whether he should be banned from participating in MLB-sanctioned baseball exhibitions. I don't think Rose should be banned-for-life from baseball, because I believe MLB is inconsistent in how the commissioner's office applies bans. I think betting on your team is a legitimate reason to be banned...I just think MLB doesn't apply bans appropriately, justly or consistently.
The reason this won't be resolved until Rose is dead is because it involves MLB admitted *they* did something wrong as well, and forces the Hall of Fame to deal with an issue that they don't really want to deal with.
For the record, I really don't like the commissioner's position that Rose has to reject gambling and show a particular type of contrition to get un-banned. I don't like MLB being morality police (he's either banned because he gambled while playing, or he's NOT banned because he gambled while playing. None of this crap because he's STILL gambling. Not your job.)
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December 12, 2015
As a Rangers fan, I can't can tell you how happy I am that Houston took a kick in the nuts like that package to acquire a reliever that's just about as good as, maybe even a bit better, than Velasquez probably would be. When Luhnow said yes to this deal, Matt Klentak must have dropped the phone, mouthing "I was kidding..."
Yes, kiddos, even Jeff Luhnow makes mistakes. I mean, you give him a pass for things like J.D. Martinez...but this will have people cussing at some point in 2016. Some people are cussing now:
From Crawfish Boxes: "That is not about disliking Giles - it's about the cost efficiency of trading a lot of value for a guy who will affect maybe seventy innings a season, no matter how good he is.
No, this post is not about liking Ken Giles. This post is about examining what Mr. Luhnow and his team just sent to Philadelphia to make Giles the newest member of the Houston Astros, and deciding if the price was worth the reward."
The article goes on with reconciliation justified by small sample sizes and pointing out that other teams have made worse deals for closers.
The comments go on to argue that the Astros will probably still have Gregerson close, with Giles performing 8th Inning duties.
Justify all you want, Astros fans. This is such a huge overpay, it gets my vote as second-worst trade of the off-season. After the Miller trade, of course.
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December 11, 2015
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December 03, 2015
"As the season goes on, those guys might be the right options.â€
"Mike probably fits us best if there is another move that opens some playing time.â€
About Josh Hamilton:
No "if" this time. This seems to indicate that Daniels is definitely planning on Hamilton being a starter next year, although likely not for more than 100 games."We’ll have to construct the roster in such a way that we can give him some time off and anticipate he might miss some time.â€
Something Jon Daniels *didn't* talk about is the fact that Cliff Lee has been cleared to pitch again. *Somebody* will give him a cheap contract with a ton of incentives. I wouldn't mind if it was Texas, but a strongly suspect it'll be St. Louis. **** St. Louis.
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Depending on which scouting report you go with, he sounds like a potential "almost" Ben Zobrist. That's pie-in-the-sky, of course, but Kivlehan is definitely a prospect you can dream on.
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December 01, 2015
Trumbo is a right-handed power bat, and that's it. His defense at 1B is below average but not horrible, but he gets used as a COF a lot. On those days his defense is bad. As a 1B he generated approximately 2 fWAR per year from 2011 - 2013, sucked in Arizona in 2014, but returned to positive value splitting the season between Arizona and Seattle.
This move by Baltimore probably indicates that they don't expect to bring Chris Davis back next year. Baltimore has a moderate but strict budget that largely prohibits nine-figure salaries, and even most higher eight-figure salaries. Baltimore had attempted repeatedly to sign Davis to an extension the last few years. His agent is Scott Boras, so that wasn't going to happen unless Baltimore handed him at least $100 million, which the Orioles were trying to avoid.
Interestingly, if you work down the list of big-big spending teams who could afford Davis' payday, you don't hit a vacant 1B position until you reach...Seattle. Second choice would be New York trying to find a way to add Davis...Teixeria is blocking him for one year...I'm not sure New York can afford to miss the opportunity to add Chris Davis to take Teixeria's place.
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Jorge Alfaro, once one of the best catching prospects in the game and still the bearer of high hopes despite losing most of a season to tendon surgery in his ankle, is taking part in Winter Ball.
The big question with Harrison is whether he'll ever actually be able to pitch regularly again. The second biggest question is whether he'll ever be able to pitch at a level that would keep him on a major league roster again. His three performances after coming off of the DL were not terribly promising. Texas allegedly explored asking Harrison to extend his rehab program in the minor leagues, but it's not clear if Texas, Harrison, the Players Union or Harrison's agent nixed the deal. He probably needs a full season of healthy pitching at AA or AAA before returning to a roster, but as long as he has a big league contract (through 2017 with a buyout in 2018 ) I can't see that happening.
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November 23, 2015
Did you catch that? Non-white managers don't do all that thinky stuff. Only white people. So non-white managers won't be able to get a job in the new, white-thinky world order in baseball. Disgusting.
Of course, this is all based on the Dan Jennings experiment in Florida, where the press lambasted the installation of non-baseball-playing Jennings as the interim manager; and Jerry Dipoto's hiring of catcher-turned-front-office talent evaluator Scott Servais for manager in Seattle. (The latter was offensive because, by all appearances, Dipoto didn't actually make much of an effort to interview or even consider anyone other than the all-white Servais.)
There is one area where Bates *does* have a point: non-whites are under-represented at the top echelon jobs of Team Owner, Team President, Vice President/President of Baseball Operations, and General/Assistant General Managers. If the trend of GMs hiring other Front Office guys to be Field Managers continues...well, there aren't very many non-white people available. Never mind that more non-white's may start appearing in the front office: It's been pretty clear that what most General Managers are looking for are an adherence to advanced analysis and a background in player development. That's not a white thing, that's a *young* thing. And it's why some of the premier Manager and front office candidates the past few years have been Dave Martinez, Alex Cora, Fredi Gonzalez and Dave Roberts.
The Dave Roberts who, Bates notes with relief, has been hired by the Los Angeles Dodgers as Manager to replace noted white man Don Mattingly.
Mike Bates is thankful that the Dodgers didn't rush to a decision, allowing the hiring process to matriculate the best candidate for the job.
Well, no...not actually. Bates is thankful that the Dodgers made sure they didn't "just hand [the reins] over to the nearest white guy the GM is comfortable with (like the Marinersand the Brewers did)." Bates explicitly leaves out the part about hiring the best person for the job. Thankfully, everything I know about Roberts suggests he's going to be a great manager and partner with Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi (another noted white man). Roberts is reported to be analytically-minded, and has spent the last several years working for various front offices as an assistant.
Mike Bates seems desperate to try to demonstrate a new era of racism is dawning in Major League Baseball. Instead, maybe he should focus on how "the youth movement" going on right now isn't all about the players on the field.
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November 16, 2015
Wilhelmsen is a solid late-inning reliever with two years of control left. Adam Morris at Lone Star Ball speculates that this move is mostly about the acquisition of Wilhelmsen as a hedge against a rumored Shawn Tolleson trade or fear of injury to Keone Kela's elbow.
Personally, I think that was about getting rid of a player that likely didn't fit in Jeff Banister's clubhouse, and putting together a deal that brings value back. The Texas front office and Banister expressed quite a bit of disappointment in Leonys Martin in 2015 regarding lack of effort, un-coachability, and his snit that occurred when he didn't make the post-season roster. Normally, you disregard personality-based disagreements, and you certainly never draw attention to anything that affects players' contracts. The Players Union doesn't like that. Baseball Players are individual professionals that you try to get to perform as a team, but as far as getting the job done goes, Leonys Martin is paid to show up and do his job. Of course, he didn't do that...except that he wasn't contractually obligated to.
However, my bet is that Texas and Leonys were in an uncomfortable situation, at least in the clubhouse. When you've got Prince Fielder willingly relinquishing 1B duties in order to make the club better, throwing a fit about not making the roster after a down offensive year looks really bad. I've already pointed out that Leonys has more than enough talent to have earned reconciliation and a shot to regain the starting CF job, but it's also true that Texas had four outfielders on the 25 man roster without getting into a couple of AAA candidates who not only could hopefully man an everyday position (Ryan Rua) but also play a depth position.
The bottom line is, in my opinion this trade is about dumping Leonys. And since I don't believe dumping a talented player is something smart MLB teams do unless it makes them better or rectifies a *serious* problem. Wilhelmsen is a good get...he's not a spare piece or a depth piece; he's a guy who sit's right next to Diekman, Dyson and Kela. Two years of control, just like Leonys. A mediocre fourth outfielder for Anthony Bass is probably parity. Players To Be Named Later are usually minor league depth or lottery tickets. If the PTBNL is a lottery ticket, I'd call the trade value for value.
EDIT: And there it is:
Jon Daniels says the player to be named is 'actually a pretty important part' of the deal. Interesting - I didn't expect that.
— Or Moyal (@OrMoyal) November 16, 2015
The point is, if you're a guy that the big league club doesn't think is vital to the teams future success or possibly doesn't want to invest the time and money they think it will still take to get you there; or if they think other teams won't value you highly enough to claim you on waivers, they'll leave you off the 40 man and expose you to waivers. For (relatively) nominal fee, other MLB clubs can claim you and put you on THEIR 40 man roster. The caveat is you have to stay on it all year, or you go back to the original team.
The Rangers got Delino DeShields, Jr. from Houston through the Rule 5 draft last year, and DeShields not only stuck on the roster, his impressive On Base Percentage was a major factor in driving the Rangers' offense. However, the Rangers also lost a Rule 5 eligible player, Odubel Herrera. Herrera had seemingly hit a wall at AA for Texas, playing up the middle where he was also blocked by several other talented middle infielders. Philadelphia took him in the Rule 5 draft and made him their Center Fielder, where he surprisingly thrived; generating not only his best offensive campaign ever but also plus defense at a difficult position that he had never played before. Completely unpredictable.
Anyway, the point of all this is that the player Texas wants is likely someone in the upper levels of the minor league system that neither Seattle nor Texas actually want on their 40 man roster. So, Seattle will leave him off the roster and hope he makes it through the draft unclaimed. If he does, Texas will then complete the Leonys trade and add the Rule 5 player to their minor league roster. I've been trying to find a list of Rule 5 eligible players in the Seattle system, but have been unsuccessful so far.
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November 15, 2015
However, the main reason there is a backlog is because the majority of baseball writers refused for a long time to give votes to (almost) anyone connected to heavy steroid usage in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's.
So, isn't this backlog, fair or not, on the writers' heads as well? I know most of them use the rationale that they're only playing by the HOF's rules...but it's also pretty clear that the writers are willing to buck hard against the rules when they don't like them.
Now, having said all that, HOF election criteria are a joke anyway, so this whole discussion is partially moot.
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