November 13, 2015
History, and what is expected...
Colby Rasmus will make history today when he, allegedly, will accept the qualifying offer made to him by the Houston Astros. Rasmus had two good years with the Cardinals, then had one all-star year with the Jays in the midst of some poor to mediocre years plagued by injury. He turned in his best year since 2013 with Houston last season, and looked a lot more like his early days with St. Louis. Rasmus is projected to regress next year, which would make the qualifying offer an overpay, but if he repeats his performance or even splits the difference he would be well worth the money. Rasmus was reportedly leaning toward accepting the QO anyway, as he has actually been considering retiring soon. He also reportedly turned down a better, multi-year contract offer to resign for one year with Houston.
As expected, Yovani Gallardo will turn down the qualifying offer from the Texas Rangers today, according to Jon Heyman. Gallardo will likely receive a multi-year contract for a larger guaranteed salary, even if the yearly value will likely be lower than the $15.8m QO. The Rangers are unlikely to be the club that signs him, unless they make no progress with bringing Colby Lewis back for another year or two.
As expected, L.A.A. has emptied the very shallow pool of talent remaining in their farm system to trade for SS Andrelton Simmons. The Angels didn't need a new shortstop, and Simmons does nothing to address their offensive shortcomings. This is another move that screams "Art Moreno", demonstrating that Billy Eppler, the new GM is still the low man of the decision-making totem pole.
UPDATE: Brett Anderson of the Dodgers and Matt Wieters of the Orioles both accepted qualifying offers. Anderson was once a decent prospect with the Athletics until he got a shot at a full-time rotation position. Since then he's been a depth pitcher, until 2015 when he put together a campaign good enough to stick in the middle of the Dodgers rotation. In other words, teams would be seriously looking at him as a back-end pitcher, and looking to spend well under $15m per year. Chavez Canyon is a good location for a mediocre pitcher to establish a market, so if Anderson can put together another decent season in 2016, he would be looking at a four or five year deal worth $10 - $15m per year.
Wieters has been hurt for the past two years and hasn't yet shown he'll return to his all-star form since coming off the D.L. Likely every team looking at Wieters, including Texas, was looking at a two or three year contract worth close to $15m per year...but if Wieters can re-establish even a sign of a return to pre-injury form, he'll command something much greater than that next year.
Anderson is the case that shows how agents are looking differently at the Q.O. this year. The past two years saw several marginal-players lose half a year before being signed. The draft pick loss attached to signing a Q.O.'d player has turned into a significant deterrent, making the Q.O. decision on marginal or questionable players much more difficult.
Marco Estrada is also off the free-agent market; signing a two-year contract extension worth $23m with Toronto.
As expected, Yovani Gallardo will turn down the qualifying offer from the Texas Rangers today, according to Jon Heyman. Gallardo will likely receive a multi-year contract for a larger guaranteed salary, even if the yearly value will likely be lower than the $15.8m QO. The Rangers are unlikely to be the club that signs him, unless they make no progress with bringing Colby Lewis back for another year or two.
As expected, L.A.A. has emptied the very shallow pool of talent remaining in their farm system to trade for SS Andrelton Simmons. The Angels didn't need a new shortstop, and Simmons does nothing to address their offensive shortcomings. This is another move that screams "Art Moreno", demonstrating that Billy Eppler, the new GM is still the low man of the decision-making totem pole.
UPDATE: Brett Anderson of the Dodgers and Matt Wieters of the Orioles both accepted qualifying offers. Anderson was once a decent prospect with the Athletics until he got a shot at a full-time rotation position. Since then he's been a depth pitcher, until 2015 when he put together a campaign good enough to stick in the middle of the Dodgers rotation. In other words, teams would be seriously looking at him as a back-end pitcher, and looking to spend well under $15m per year. Chavez Canyon is a good location for a mediocre pitcher to establish a market, so if Anderson can put together another decent season in 2016, he would be looking at a four or five year deal worth $10 - $15m per year.
Wieters has been hurt for the past two years and hasn't yet shown he'll return to his all-star form since coming off the D.L. Likely every team looking at Wieters, including Texas, was looking at a two or three year contract worth close to $15m per year...but if Wieters can re-establish even a sign of a return to pre-injury form, he'll command something much greater than that next year.
Anderson is the case that shows how agents are looking differently at the Q.O. this year. The past two years saw several marginal-players lose half a year before being signed. The draft pick loss attached to signing a Q.O.'d player has turned into a significant deterrent, making the Q.O. decision on marginal or questionable players much more difficult.
Marco Estrada is also off the free-agent market; signing a two-year contract extension worth $23m with Toronto.
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November 09, 2015
Where is Byung-ho Park going?
As Park is the greatest lottery ticket buy since Tanaka*, I'll update news here.
It's tenuously down to six five four one clubs: Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox, and Twins.
*Not the greatest "win". That would be the Pirates winning bid for Jung-ho Kang. For a five million dollar bid and $11 million over four years, they got a guy who could have won rookie of the year at shortshop. In a year that included Correa and Sano and Lindor debuting.
UPDATE: One report out of Korea is claiming the winning bidder is Minnesota. I'm not marking off the others until this is confirmed. This has now been confirmed by multiple national writers. The Twins weren't considered likely candidates, as the combination of Mauer at 1B and Plouffe at 3B is already displacing top rookie Miguel Sano, a 3B, to DH. As with the Rangers, the addition of Park will likely necessitate one or more trades.
It's tenuously down to six five four one clubs: Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox, and Twins.
*Not the greatest "win". That would be the Pirates winning bid for Jung-ho Kang. For a five million dollar bid and $11 million over four years, they got a guy who could have won rookie of the year at shortshop. In a year that included Correa and Sano and Lindor debuting.
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November 07, 2015
The wildest speculation...
No, it's not about Texas trading another top prospect, mlb controllable pitching and a couple of lottery tickets for Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. Those are pie-in-sky deals anyway. Here's one that might actually make sense.
Let's suppose the Texas Rangers won the bid to negotiate with Byung-ho Park. The posting process is designed to heavily incentivize getting a deal done, so we can then further speculate that Park will be signed to a major league contract. It could be a minor-league contract, but you usually only see that with South and Central American players.
So, we're going to say that if that happens, then the Rangers are planning for Park to be the starting 1B in 2016. That means that Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder both face reduced playing time. For now, let's assume that Texas believes he'll be an every day player. That means that Moreland is the default bench 1B/DH, while Fielder plays DH most days.
HOWEVER, Mitch Moreland is an attractive trade offer for the Rangers. He's in his last year of arbitration and made $3 million last year. Moreland is a good bet to generate right at 1 fWAR of value, but is also coming off his best major league season. He generated 2.1 fWAR, hit 23 HR for the second time in his career, and was healthy the entire year for the first time ever. The Rangers could get a legitimate minor prospect and some depth trading him this Winter. That gives you Park as your every day 1B, Prince Fielder as a backup 1B and full-time DH.
HOWEVER, Jeff Banister has stated repeatedly that he favors multi-tool players (not multi-position players, to be clear). He wants guys who know how to be an asset on the bases regardless of their speed. He wants smart defenders. He wants guys who can hit strategically. Fielder made some major adjustments to his batting game this year, leading to a guy who can hit for specific outcomes and not just power. However, his defense and baserunning are both at the bottom of the league rankings. That means Prince Fielder's only real job is to be the #3 hitter. When fully healthy, he's probably still an elite hitter for all that, but maybe the Rangers are better overall with a healthy Josh Hamilton in that position. And, of course, Texas isn't exactly enamored with Prince's contract.
Texas would have to eat a lot of that contract to move Fielder. Someone would love to have Fielder at $10 - $12 million per year, even for five more years. Heck, Texas would love to have Fielder for five years at $10 - $12 million per year. But that's not an option. Prince makes $24 million per year over the next five years. Detroit pays $6 million per year starting next year, taking the contract down to $18 million per year. So let's say Texas passes on the $6 million per year from Detroit to a new team, and adds their own $6 million per year over five years. The important part of that is that Texas gets back $12 million per year, which likely pays Park's salary. And possibly his posting fee.
End result: Texas gets a RH power bat and good defensive 1B, a minor prospect, some minor league depth and a lottery ticket without affecting the major league salary. The Rangers may not be able to literally replace Fielder's bat in the three hole, but they can easily replace his 1.6 fWAR.
Biggest negative: Prince has, by all accounts, been an awesome presence in the dugout and the clubhouse. Despite the neck injury that ended his season early in 2014 and possibly affected his second-half performance in 2015, his has been a fun comeback story with the Rangers. A big part of me really doesn't want to send him packing after only two years. And to be honest, I don't think Texas *will* send him packing. I suspect Moreland is traded this Winter, with Texas viewing his strong 2015 as an outlier; predicting future performance as a decreasingly effective 1B and a bat that works better in a platoon. Add to that the possibility of getting even one prospect added to the system, and I think it's too attractive a deal to pass up.
UPDATE: One Rangers reporter is reporting now that the Rangers did not have the winning bid to negotiate with Byung-ho Park. So I move on to plan B: would the Rangers consider moving both Moreland or Fielder for a couple of years of Mike Napoli at 1B? Napoli's defense at first is comparable to Moreland's, but Napoli's bat has suffered vs. RHP. Napoli was used mostly in a platoon with Moreland after he re-joined the Rangers, and a Moreland/Napoli platoon could potentially create a 2 - 3 WAR 1B for cheap. Of course, there's that roster spot for the third player on the roster limited to 1B/DH...
Let's suppose the Texas Rangers won the bid to negotiate with Byung-ho Park. The posting process is designed to heavily incentivize getting a deal done, so we can then further speculate that Park will be signed to a major league contract. It could be a minor-league contract, but you usually only see that with South and Central American players.
So, we're going to say that if that happens, then the Rangers are planning for Park to be the starting 1B in 2016. That means that Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder both face reduced playing time. For now, let's assume that Texas believes he'll be an every day player. That means that Moreland is the default bench 1B/DH, while Fielder plays DH most days.
HOWEVER, Mitch Moreland is an attractive trade offer for the Rangers. He's in his last year of arbitration and made $3 million last year. Moreland is a good bet to generate right at 1 fWAR of value, but is also coming off his best major league season. He generated 2.1 fWAR, hit 23 HR for the second time in his career, and was healthy the entire year for the first time ever. The Rangers could get a legitimate minor prospect and some depth trading him this Winter. That gives you Park as your every day 1B, Prince Fielder as a backup 1B and full-time DH.
HOWEVER, Jeff Banister has stated repeatedly that he favors multi-tool players (not multi-position players, to be clear). He wants guys who know how to be an asset on the bases regardless of their speed. He wants smart defenders. He wants guys who can hit strategically. Fielder made some major adjustments to his batting game this year, leading to a guy who can hit for specific outcomes and not just power. However, his defense and baserunning are both at the bottom of the league rankings. That means Prince Fielder's only real job is to be the #3 hitter. When fully healthy, he's probably still an elite hitter for all that, but maybe the Rangers are better overall with a healthy Josh Hamilton in that position. And, of course, Texas isn't exactly enamored with Prince's contract.
Texas would have to eat a lot of that contract to move Fielder. Someone would love to have Fielder at $10 - $12 million per year, even for five more years. Heck, Texas would love to have Fielder for five years at $10 - $12 million per year. But that's not an option. Prince makes $24 million per year over the next five years. Detroit pays $6 million per year starting next year, taking the contract down to $18 million per year. So let's say Texas passes on the $6 million per year from Detroit to a new team, and adds their own $6 million per year over five years. The important part of that is that Texas gets back $12 million per year, which likely pays Park's salary. And possibly his posting fee.
End result: Texas gets a RH power bat and good defensive 1B, a minor prospect, some minor league depth and a lottery ticket without affecting the major league salary. The Rangers may not be able to literally replace Fielder's bat in the three hole, but they can easily replace his 1.6 fWAR.
Biggest negative: Prince has, by all accounts, been an awesome presence in the dugout and the clubhouse. Despite the neck injury that ended his season early in 2014 and possibly affected his second-half performance in 2015, his has been a fun comeback story with the Rangers. A big part of me really doesn't want to send him packing after only two years. And to be honest, I don't think Texas *will* send him packing. I suspect Moreland is traded this Winter, with Texas viewing his strong 2015 as an outlier; predicting future performance as a decreasingly effective 1B and a bat that works better in a platoon. Add to that the possibility of getting even one prospect added to the system, and I think it's too attractive a deal to pass up.
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November 05, 2015
Rangers hire Iapoce away from Cubs...
The Texas Rangers finalized their coaching staff with some new hires from outside the organization and some promotions and moves within.
As expected, the club announced today that Doug Brocail will replace Mike Maddux as pitching coach while Brad Holman (the Rangers AAA pitching coach) will replace Andy Hawkins in the bullpen.
Also announced was the hiring of Chicago Cubs minor league hitting coordinator Anthony Iapoce to replace the "looking for a job closer to home (i.e. "go home and look for a new job") Dave Magadan. Iapoce has a lackluster record as a lifetime minor league player, but impressive credentials as a coach of young hitters. Texas seems committed to the idea of devoting all of their coaching resources to being "player development" focused.
Assistant hitting instructor Bobby Jones will move to the replay room, but will continue coaching before and after the game. Justin Mashore, the AA hitting coach credited with getting Rougned Odor's swing back on-line, will replace Jones as the Assistant Hitting Coach.
Tony Beasley remains on-staff as 3B Coach and Infield Instructor, Hector Ortiz, Jr. remains as 1B Coach and Catching Instructor, Jayce Tingler will continue as Outfield Coach and Coordinator, and Steve Buechele will continue to occupy the Bench and call Defensive shifts and plays.
Evan Grant has a story on Jeff Banister's coaching team philosophy.
As expected, the club announced today that Doug Brocail will replace Mike Maddux as pitching coach while Brad Holman (the Rangers AAA pitching coach) will replace Andy Hawkins in the bullpen.
Also announced was the hiring of Chicago Cubs minor league hitting coordinator Anthony Iapoce to replace the "looking for a job closer to home (i.e. "go home and look for a new job") Dave Magadan. Iapoce has a lackluster record as a lifetime minor league player, but impressive credentials as a coach of young hitters. Texas seems committed to the idea of devoting all of their coaching resources to being "player development" focused.
Assistant hitting instructor Bobby Jones will move to the replay room, but will continue coaching before and after the game. Justin Mashore, the AA hitting coach credited with getting Rougned Odor's swing back on-line, will replace Jones as the Assistant Hitting Coach.
Tony Beasley remains on-staff as 3B Coach and Infield Instructor, Hector Ortiz, Jr. remains as 1B Coach and Catching Instructor, Jayce Tingler will continue as Outfield Coach and Coordinator, and Steve Buechele will continue to occupy the Bench and call Defensive shifts and plays.
Evan Grant has a story on Jeff Banister's coaching team philosophy.
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November 04, 2015
Pitching staff may be finalized...
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Texas Rangers have offered the position of Pitching Coach to former Ranger and current Corpus Christi Hooks Pitching Coach Doug Brocail. Brocail retired with the Houston Astros and worked his way through their organization quickly, spending 2011 and 2012 as the club's Pitching Coach before the hiring of Bo Porter as manager precipitated a new coaching staff. Brocail spent 2013 and '14 advising Jeff Luhnow on organizational pitching goals and coaching strategies, and was put in charge of Houston's crop of young arms in 2015. Brocail has confirmed that his agent is currently negotiating a contract with Texas.
Grant also reports that Texas has offered the Bullpen Coach position to AAA pitching coach Brad Holman. Considering one of Holman's chief duties the past year has been to convert minor league starters to MLB relievers, including what will probably be half the bullpen next year, that's probably a good choice.
Grant also reports that Texas has offered the Bullpen Coach position to AAA pitching coach Brad Holman. Considering one of Holman's chief duties the past year has been to convert minor league starters to MLB relievers, including what will probably be half the bullpen next year, that's probably a good choice.
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November 03, 2015
Summary update on the Mike Maddux departure...
Rather than modify the previous post for the 20th time, I'll just sum up what G.M. Jon Daniels said in a recent interview:
After negotiating over the contract offer the Rangers made to Maddux, he asked to table talks while he fielded offers from other clubs. The front office felt after a few days that Maddux was likely going to leave for another team, and began preliminary interviews and reviews to see what direction the team would go after Maddux left. During this process the interview team, which included Daniels and Banister and other front office people and player consultants, were surprised to discover that they felt replacing Maddux might actually be a better solution. They subsequently informed Mike Maddux that Texas was ending contract negotiations and going another direction.
Now, how much of that you believe is literal truth is up to you.
After negotiating over the contract offer the Rangers made to Maddux, he asked to table talks while he fielded offers from other clubs. The front office felt after a few days that Maddux was likely going to leave for another team, and began preliminary interviews and reviews to see what direction the team would go after Maddux left. During this process the interview team, which included Daniels and Banister and other front office people and player consultants, were surprised to discover that they felt replacing Maddux might actually be a better solution. They subsequently informed Mike Maddux that Texas was ending contract negotiations and going another direction.
Now, how much of that you believe is literal truth is up to you.
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November 02, 2015
Oooooo....juicy...
Dave Cameron, who I have savaged with tiny fists for years over his winning projections that seem to be based on fairy wishes, is still a smart guy. Being a smart guy, he has a new essay up at Fangraphs analyzing what parts of the Royals success this year, and in the post-season especially, can be replicated by other teams.
While I think most baseball observers will stand by the opinion that Kansas City is a good team that earned their playoff spot; I think it's pretty clear that the Royals benefited from a massive amount of luck in the championship series and the world series. Incredible "clutch" hitting is not only *not* a reproducible skill, it's not even statistically identifiable. However, maintaining a bullpen full of high-output relievers IS a quantifiable strategy.
Bottom line is, it's a good article, and later I'm going to go through it in a post and see what the Rangers are doing in relation.
Bottom line is, it's a good article, and later I'm going to go through it in a post and see what the Rangers are doing in relation.
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October 29, 2015
Mike Maddux has chosen to finally accept a managing job with...wait, what?
Rangers fans have been expecting for years to lose the club's highly-touted pitching coach Mike Maddux. Reputed to be one of, if not *the* highest paid coach in baseball, fans and writers alike have been waiting for the shoe to drop when Maddux finally accepted the call to manage his own club.
What no-one expected was that Texas would send Maddux packing:
UPDATE: The Rangers sent out a note to reporters that they have already interviewed internal candidates Brad Holman, Danny Clark (the Minor League pitching coordinator) and Jeff Andrews (the AA pitching coach). So this decision was likely made days or weeks ago. You know, at the same time the other guys were let go. Guessing withholding the news on Maddux was probably doing him a favor to try to drive up his market. Would not be surprised if we get an announcement on Maddux taking a job elsewhere soon.
What no-one expected was that Texas would send Maddux packing:
#Rangers informed Mike Maddux earlier today that they had decided to make a change. Still looking at candidates.
— Jeff Wilson (@JeffWilson_FWST) October 29, 2015
Of course, when Jeff Banister was hired to manage, he was given the option to interview most of the existing coaches and keep any on staff that he felt could do the job he wanted done. Banister replaced the bench coach and 1st and 3rd base coaches, but kept Magadan as hitting coach, Hawkins as bullpen coach, and Maddux as pitching coach. However, all three are gone now; Hawkins was informed at the end of the season that Texas wasn't going to renew his contract and Magadan had apparently already discussed leaving with the front office.
The Rangers has already put out a tidbit that the club was open to Maddux returning on a new contract, but was waiting on negotiations while he entertained offers from other clubs. This bit of news, then, comes as quite a surprise; and leaves fans and apparently beat writers wondering what caused the change.
Maddux's influence has long been a topic of debate among fans. During Ron Washington's tenure as manager, some beat writers hinted more than once that bullpen management was left entirely or mostly up to Maddux, as well some aspects of pitcher management. There was never, of course, any real proof of this being true; but that didn't stop Texas fans from using this info in arguments both defending and attacking pitcher management by the Rangers. This past year, bullpen management certainly changed, leading to a general understanding that Banister was obviously making his own (sometimes confusing or poor) substitutions. Of course, you can make the argument from every angle with no actual evidence.
To be fair, Maddux's ability to work with pitchers is widely lauded, but not universally supported. Yu Darvish was at times vocal about his disagreements with Maddux's coaching: Maddux preached contact pitching over strike outs, and Darvish prefers the K. Unlike the situation in Anaheim, Texas doesn't have a clear history of busted pitching prospects almost always improving when they leave, but you have to consider the work of the minor leagues coaches as well. In fact, the favorite going forward for the Rangers position is minor league pitching coach Brad Holman, who has received a lot of praise from younger Texas pitchers for helping them develop their approach.
Hopefully we'll get some more info on why Maddux has been effectively "let go", but like the Washington situation, it may be wise to not expect the story to be told for a long time.
The Rangers has already put out a tidbit that the club was open to Maddux returning on a new contract, but was waiting on negotiations while he entertained offers from other clubs. This bit of news, then, comes as quite a surprise; and leaves fans and apparently beat writers wondering what caused the change.
Maddux's influence has long been a topic of debate among fans. During Ron Washington's tenure as manager, some beat writers hinted more than once that bullpen management was left entirely or mostly up to Maddux, as well some aspects of pitcher management. There was never, of course, any real proof of this being true; but that didn't stop Texas fans from using this info in arguments both defending and attacking pitcher management by the Rangers. This past year, bullpen management certainly changed, leading to a general understanding that Banister was obviously making his own (sometimes confusing or poor) substitutions. Of course, you can make the argument from every angle with no actual evidence.
To be fair, Maddux's ability to work with pitchers is widely lauded, but not universally supported. Yu Darvish was at times vocal about his disagreements with Maddux's coaching: Maddux preached contact pitching over strike outs, and Darvish prefers the K. Unlike the situation in Anaheim, Texas doesn't have a clear history of busted pitching prospects almost always improving when they leave, but you have to consider the work of the minor leagues coaches as well. In fact, the favorite going forward for the Rangers position is minor league pitching coach Brad Holman, who has received a lot of praise from younger Texas pitchers for helping them develop their approach.
Hopefully we'll get some more info on why Maddux has been effectively "let go", but like the Washington situation, it may be wise to not expect the story to be told for a long time.
Evan Grant is now reporting that the decision was made the week after the season ended. Texas immediately offered Maddux a new contract; he declined in order to continue negotiating with other teams. Something in that process led the Rangers to decide that changing personnel was the superior option to waiting for further negotiations with Mike Maddux.
As Maddux fielded offers from multiple clubs, the Rangers front office came to the conclusion that Maddux was likely leaving for another job. During meetings to discuss how to replace their pitching coach, Texas leadership came to believe they could improve at the position, and decided to let Mike Maddux know the Rangers were going to pursue other options rather than wait for his decision. Maddux was reportedly surprised by the decision, which conflicts a bit with Texas claiming he was likely to leave of his on volition. Interestingly, the few Rangers players who have been interviewed have tempered complimentary farewells with praise for the clubs other pitching coaches.
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October 27, 2015
What do the Rangers need to get better?
That's the real question isn't it? Rangers news and bloggers are devoting full time now to prognosticating who goes and who stays this offseason, and most of them are quickly reaching the dead end: the team only has two glaring weaknesses.
Of course, you then have to go to the next step: Maybe everyone after that is *fine*, but wear can the Rangers get *better*?
Step One : The Starting Roster
C: Robinson Chirinos, who may be permanently diminished by a shoulder injury.
Of course, you then have to go to the next step: Maybe everyone after that is *fine*, but wear can the Rangers get *better*?
Step One : The Starting Roster
C: Robinson Chirinos, who may be permanently diminished by a shoulder injury.
1B: Mitch Moreland LH power, good defense, borderline platoon player against LH.
2B: Rougie Here to stay. Do not feed.
3B: Adrian Beltre A national treasure for at least one more season.
SS: Elvis Andrus Promising return in the second half after a two year absence from productivity.
LF: ??? Josh Hamilton? Ryan Rua?
CF: Delino DeShields. Good defense for a LF. Good offense for a 4th outfielder. Good Leonys would be a better fit.
RF: Shin-soo Choo. Came up big in the second half, generating over 2WAR of value *after* the ASB.
DH: Prince Fielder. Not the best DH in the league, but one of the best. Any DH that adds positive value has done his job, and Fielder, while overpaid for this duty, was only a tick behind the surprising Kendrys Morales. May be hurt. May be tired. May be done.
P: Cole Hamels. Maybe he's more of a reliable #2 in the way Sarmardzija and Shields really aren't. He's still a bargain at that.
P: Martin Perez. Struggled after coming back from TJ, but has the pitchability to stick in the middle of the rotation.
P: Derek Holland. After a dominating return from a shoulder injury, Holland quickly fell apart. Considering Holland depends on the strikeout more than Perez, and has been "just around the corner" for years, his status may be at the back of the rotation for a while.
P: Chi Chi Gonzales. Perez without the ability to strike people out. Extreme contact pitcher who relies entirely on keeping his pitches down. Needs a lot of polish to stick in the rotation; after six appearances there was enough info on him that he couldn't get anyone out.
P: Nick Martinez. Depth pitcher with enough ability to be surprisingly dominant on occasion.
P: Nick Tepesch. Unknown factor at this point. DL'd all year.
RP: Shawn Tolleson. Relies on a very good change-up, looked to be losing his edge by the end of the year. He'll be in the late-inning mix as long as he's healthy.
RP: Shawn Tolleson. Relies on a very good change-up, looked to be losing his edge by the end of the year. He'll be in the late-inning mix as long as he's healthy.
RP: Keone Kela. Closer in waiting, one of three Rangers relievers who throw in triple digits. Ended season with arm fatigue, but no word about injury yet.
RP: Jake Diekman. Another hard throwing reliever. Has bouts of wildness, but was largely reliable for Texas for months.
RP: Sam Dyson. Hit 100 repeatedly. Gave up two home runs after coming to the Rangers. In his first appearance, and his last, against Jose Bautista in Game Five.
On that roster, you have two clear problems: Not enough starting pitching, and Left Field. Of the two, Left Field *can* be taken care of internally, theoretically.
On that roster, you have two clear problems: Not enough starting pitching, and Left Field. Of the two, Left Field *can* be taken care of internally, theoretically.
Hamilton's health should relegate him to a 4th outfielder slot, and he can play the entire field with speed and adequate defense. He seemed to thrive this year off the bench, delivering several "clutch" performances despite an overall league-average batting line. Then you could slide DeShields to Left, where his bat is a bit weaker than you would like but his defense is great. Plus, Hamilton makes up for the power loss by delivering quite a bit for a bench bat and 4th OF. And finally, you bring Leonys Martin back to CF. That's the tricky part. Leonys' offense almost completely disappeared in 2015. Because of this he only generated .5 WAR in 95 games. Which means he would have generated just under 1 WAR over the full year. To compare, Delino delivered 1.3 WAR over 121 games. It probably would not have been much greater over a full year in Center, his defense drags his value down in that position.
Which is to say, all Leonys has to do to be a better choice in CF is to hit *just a little bit*. And considering Randal Grichuk was the most valuable CF in baseball, generating 3.1 WAR, the Leonys Martin who generated 2.9 and 3.5 WAR in 2013 and '14 would suddenly be one of the best CF and baseball again.
Of course, Delino DeShields in LF certainly won't be a Yoenis Cespedas, or even an Alex Gordon. But he could be in Nori Aoki territory, which I think the Rangers would take.
However, before we jump ahead too far; there is another problem with Leonys Martin. When he failed to impress after returning from a DL stint at the end of the season, he was left off of the playoff roster. He subsequently refused a request to continue training in the Surprise, AZ training facility to be ready for a roster substitution during the playoffs. He was reportedly angry with the Rangers for not being included on the ALDS roster and was left out of team introductions before the first home playoff game, while other reserve players were included. His contract situation is muddled as well. Martin was signed as a free agent from Cuba, and his contract expires this year. However, he also qualifies for salary arbitration this year. I can't find anyone who can explain how that's all going to work.
So Leonys has a proven ability to be one of the best center fielders in the game, but is coming off of a down year at the end of a contract and *should* qualify for higher pay; AND he's currently on the outs with the club, especially new manager Jeff Banister. It's questionable whether Martin is even with the team next year. But you can bet Texas is going to try to work this out however they can. Leonys is worth it.
On the pitching question, there are no high-level pitchers ready to step in to a starting role behind Chi Chi. Jerad Eickhoff was the closest, but even Texas didn't see him doing what he did when he was inserted into Philadelphia's starting rotation. Eickhoff was seen as a depth pitcher with back-end potential, not a guy who Philadelphia is probably counting on to hold up the middle of the rotation next year.
And interestingly, Texas hasn't been connected to any position player free agents or trades beyond Catcher Lucroy (see list above). However, there have been persistent rumors that the Rangers are pursuing trades for Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. If there is any truth to the idea that Texas is still pursuing high-level starting pitching, that would seem to support the idea that the position players are likely all returning or are being replaced from within. The big problem there is trying to get another right-handed bat into the lineup. I'll talk about that issue when I write up who could end up being the odd-man-out on the current roster.
Which is to say, all Leonys has to do to be a better choice in CF is to hit *just a little bit*. And considering Randal Grichuk was the most valuable CF in baseball, generating 3.1 WAR, the Leonys Martin who generated 2.9 and 3.5 WAR in 2013 and '14 would suddenly be one of the best CF and baseball again.
Of course, Delino DeShields in LF certainly won't be a Yoenis Cespedas, or even an Alex Gordon. But he could be in Nori Aoki territory, which I think the Rangers would take.
However, before we jump ahead too far; there is another problem with Leonys Martin. When he failed to impress after returning from a DL stint at the end of the season, he was left off of the playoff roster. He subsequently refused a request to continue training in the Surprise, AZ training facility to be ready for a roster substitution during the playoffs. He was reportedly angry with the Rangers for not being included on the ALDS roster and was left out of team introductions before the first home playoff game, while other reserve players were included. His contract situation is muddled as well. Martin was signed as a free agent from Cuba, and his contract expires this year. However, he also qualifies for salary arbitration this year. I can't find anyone who can explain how that's all going to work.
So Leonys has a proven ability to be one of the best center fielders in the game, but is coming off of a down year at the end of a contract and *should* qualify for higher pay; AND he's currently on the outs with the club, especially new manager Jeff Banister. It's questionable whether Martin is even with the team next year. But you can bet Texas is going to try to work this out however they can. Leonys is worth it.
On the pitching question, there are no high-level pitchers ready to step in to a starting role behind Chi Chi. Jerad Eickhoff was the closest, but even Texas didn't see him doing what he did when he was inserted into Philadelphia's starting rotation. Eickhoff was seen as a depth pitcher with back-end potential, not a guy who Philadelphia is probably counting on to hold up the middle of the rotation next year.
And interestingly, Texas hasn't been connected to any position player free agents or trades beyond Catcher Lucroy (see list above). However, there have been persistent rumors that the Rangers are pursuing trades for Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. If there is any truth to the idea that Texas is still pursuing high-level starting pitching, that would seem to support the idea that the position players are likely all returning or are being replaced from within. The big problem there is trying to get another right-handed bat into the lineup. I'll talk about that issue when I write up who could end up being the odd-man-out on the current roster.
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October 23, 2015
That special time of year...
Now that we know who the World Series teams are likely to be, and it's not anybody important to the national sports media, it's time to start talking about who the Yankees are going to buy.
The national sports media loved the Steinbrenner era. He was such an easy man to hate, but he also established *the* premiere market team that continually operates at or beyond the salary cap. The Yankees were in on every free agent; the only question was which ones they would sign, thereby creating a trickle-down effect on the rest of the normal teams.
The Yankees don't really work that way anymore, but the media still starts off the off-season with full articles on whether the Yankees will sign this or that free agent. Today it's Yoenis Cespedas. Bizarrely, there haven't been many opinions on which pitchers the Yankees will go after. There usually aren't, actually; the national media is also in love with the idea that New York is an offense-first team, hoarding sluggers at the expense of pitching.
I still maintain, for the record, that it's a miracle Tanaka hasn't succumbed to Tommy John surgery yet. He just pitched a full season (minus some DL time) with a partially torn UCL. And contrary to my predictions, he pitched well. I don't know how he's doing it...although of course, we all know it CAN be done. Before UCL tears were repairable, numerous pitchers figured out ways to pitch through and around the pain, sometimes for years. Tanaka could have years of success continuing to pitch just as he has.
But I'm still not betting on it. He's pitching on borrowed time, and New York needs both pitchers and hitters to stay competitive.
The national sports media loved the Steinbrenner era. He was such an easy man to hate, but he also established *the* premiere market team that continually operates at or beyond the salary cap. The Yankees were in on every free agent; the only question was which ones they would sign, thereby creating a trickle-down effect on the rest of the normal teams.
The Yankees don't really work that way anymore, but the media still starts off the off-season with full articles on whether the Yankees will sign this or that free agent. Today it's Yoenis Cespedas. Bizarrely, there haven't been many opinions on which pitchers the Yankees will go after. There usually aren't, actually; the national media is also in love with the idea that New York is an offense-first team, hoarding sluggers at the expense of pitching.
I still maintain, for the record, that it's a miracle Tanaka hasn't succumbed to Tommy John surgery yet. He just pitched a full season (minus some DL time) with a partially torn UCL. And contrary to my predictions, he pitched well. I don't know how he's doing it...although of course, we all know it CAN be done. Before UCL tears were repairable, numerous pitchers figured out ways to pitch through and around the pain, sometimes for years. Tanaka could have years of success continuing to pitch just as he has.
But I'm still not betting on it. He's pitching on borrowed time, and New York needs both pitchers and hitters to stay competitive.
And I know this because every off-season, what New York needs is the first and foremost topic of discussion among the national baseball media.
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October 22, 2015
The Rangers latest top prospect...(?)
Watch out for this Jurickson Profar guy playing in the Arizona Fall League:
Profar, batting LH, doubles to right on a fastball in his first AB of the fall.
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) October 22, 2015
Jurickson Profar just hit a game-tying solo homer in the ninth.
— Jeff Wilson (@JeffWilson_FWST) October 22, 2015
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October 21, 2015
Cubs eliminated in four...
A very small part of me is marveling that the Cubs managed to lose four straight to the Mets in the NLCS. But honestly, the Mets are some kind of bizarro world team right now. They've taken the standard page from the Giants and the Cardinals of the past decade, in which all of a sudden, completely unheralded players go on extreme tears and completely dominate the game. Bartolo Colon got the win tonight. New York dropped him from the rotation multiple times the past two years, because he's just not very good anymore; but all of their pitchers kept getting hurt.
What's going to suck is if the Mets suddenly lose all of this bizarre luck and stomped by Kansas City or Toronto.
A bright point of hope for the Cubs: they weren't supposed to be a championship team this year; all of their young players were supposed to trickle in over the next couple of years. The future looks good.
A bright point of hope for the Cubs: they weren't supposed to be a championship team this year; all of their young players were supposed to trickle in over the next couple of years. The future looks good.
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October 14, 2015
Oh, and another thing or two...
The Rangers are going to do other things this offseason of course, but keep in mind that step one is to add one Yu Darvish and stir...
Also,
Also,
Rougned Odor doesn't care what you say.
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2015 Season Over
Texas drops the fifth game of the Division Series 6 - 3 in Toronto. Featuring a 7th inning in which Rougned odor scored the go-ahead run for Texas on a heads-up, situationally-aware play that lead to Toronto playing the game under protest. Which was all made moot in the bottom of the seventh when Elvis Andrus bobbled a routine grounder and Mitch Moreland threw short on a double-play ball on the very next play. And THEN Sam Dyson gave up only his second home run of the year to Jose Bautista, creating the final 6 - 3 score.
Obviously, Toronto will drop the protest.
I'm disappointed, of course; I really wanted Texas to go all the way, just like every other year. But it's tempered by the fact that, as I've said repeatedly, the Rangers weren't even supposed to be here today. Certainly I thought they were a better team than most prognosticators gave them credit for at the beginning of the year, but I figured they would finish a game or two over .500.
And even when they won the division, I knew they would have a hard time getting past Toronto. Toronto is the exact kind of team that is hardest on Texas. The only possibility the Rangers had was to get after Toronto's middle-of-the-order, which isn't so hot. Instead, Texas mashed against Price and Stroman, and couldn't do anything against the middle guys. Texas lost this series in Arlington; game five was just a second chance.
With Texas out, I suppose I have some small interest in how Houston plays out. I don't think they're actually as good of a team as they're seen to be, but that's just my opinion. The Cubs are the only team left that I have any real affection for, and those games are probably the only ones I'll continue to listen to.
Obviously, Toronto will drop the protest.
I'm disappointed, of course; I really wanted Texas to go all the way, just like every other year. But it's tempered by the fact that, as I've said repeatedly, the Rangers weren't even supposed to be here today. Certainly I thought they were a better team than most prognosticators gave them credit for at the beginning of the year, but I figured they would finish a game or two over .500.
And even when they won the division, I knew they would have a hard time getting past Toronto. Toronto is the exact kind of team that is hardest on Texas. The only possibility the Rangers had was to get after Toronto's middle-of-the-order, which isn't so hot. Instead, Texas mashed against Price and Stroman, and couldn't do anything against the middle guys. Texas lost this series in Arlington; game five was just a second chance.
With Texas out, I suppose I have some small interest in how Houston plays out. I don't think they're actually as good of a team as they're seen to be, but that's just my opinion. The Cubs are the only team left that I have any real affection for, and those games are probably the only ones I'll continue to listen to.
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October 13, 2015
Congratulations to the Chicago Cubs!
On their first Championship series appearance since 2003. And doubly because they beat the St. Louis Cardinals to do it!
Chicago is also the first playoff team in 2015 to gain access to the Championship level.
Chicago is also the first playoff team in 2015 to gain access to the Championship level.
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