Which is to say, while that was certainly a bad sentence, it may not be a bad deal that Colby isn't already a Texas Ranger.  I'm going to paste in my half of a discussion on another website regarding the Colby non-signing.

"Given Colby's age and injury history, it would be difficult for the Rangers to commit $7-$8 million to Lewis and still be able to ascertain another starter -- even via trade -- and a bat with the remaining $12 million."

That's it in a nutshell. Colby has a decent chance of getting $7 - $10 million, as one of only a few back-end starters with a track record of being *just* a bit better than a stock number five. If you're Texas, and there's apparently a general feeling that Justin Masterson may go that low, or at least close to it; you would have to seriously consider that Masterson makes a lot more long-term sense than Lewis. Or some other pitcher who is not 36 years old and trying to pitch on re-surfaced hip.

And beyond that, with $20 million (supposedly) to spend, do you take $8 million and spend it on a back-end starter, even someone who's a bit better than average? Or do you trust that a league-minimum AAAA pitcher gets the job done for you? Your $8 million on Colby (or Masterson, probably) will get you an extra WAR at the back of the rotation, whereas if you could work a deal for Cole Hamels for that $20 million you add around 3 WAR.

Something I never put much stock in is the idea that a player being more inclined toward a particular team has all that much to do with whether they'll sign in even a slightly disadvantageous situation. (i.e. "he wants to play for Texas, so he'll take less" or "he owes something to Texas, so he should feel at least a slight obligation to more strongly consider Texas' offer") I don't think the Players Union likes that; they've been upset with players before for taking lower deals just to play where they want. The only "fan-favorite" contract the Players Union seems to like is knocking a year of AAV off of a long-term contract, which doesn't even make sense in older players.

Colby's medical situation means that as far as anyone knows, he may not even be able to pitch out of spring training next year. That's why I suspect Texas probably offered him a very low guaranteed salary, maybe even something not far off of what he made this year, but with a lot of incentives. With New York looking for pitching up and down the spectrum, and a reputation for hiring old hands, Lewis' agent would have to feel pretty strongly that $7 - $10 million guaranteed may be possible. At the end of the salary spectrum we're talking about, that's probably double or more the money that Texas is offering.

(EDITED)What's going to hurt is if Colby signs somewhere else for $2 or $3 million. It may be totally justified, at the time or maybe only in hindsight, but that's most likely going to mean that the front office isn't counting on Colby to produce one win above replacement in value. Because that's the only thing they can get for less than a few million.

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