March 09, 2016
One Number
Your free agent Third Baseman has produced nearly 5 and 1/2 fWAR per year over the past five years and averaged 132.2 wRC+ (weighted Runs Created adjusted for League and Park). He produced over 5 1/2 with an average wRC+ over 138 in the first four years and played through a severe injury in that fifth year, indicating he probably lost .5 to 1 fWAR and and 10 to 20 points in wRC+. As best as anyone can calculate, his play had a literal value of $150 to $200 million over that five years. An actual free agent contract for that kind of value *right now* would go well over $100 million and would likely reach $150 million. He actually got $96, so that was a pretty good deal.
Would you give him $60 million for a three year extension?
If you based your decision ONLY on the information I shared, you would probably come to the conclusion that it's probably a good deal. You're paying for two years of production over three years, something a guy like this will almost certainly reach.
On the other hand, if you're reading this *here* (a Rangers blog), then you know who I'm talking about, and you know I'm leaving out a REALLY IMPORTANT piece of information.
The player is Adrian Beltre, and the contract extension would cover his ages 38 - 40 years.
Now, of course, if you don't know who Adrian Beltre is, and all you're understanding here is "AGES 38 - 40", then you're thinking "Are you insane?" If you know who Adrian Beltre is, then you're thinking "Hm. Umm. Welllllll....huh. I don't know...I mean this IS Beltre...but that's a lot of money for a guy in his late 30's who's going to start declining ANY MINUTE NOW...right?"
Would you give him $60 million for a three year extension?
If you based your decision ONLY on the information I shared, you would probably come to the conclusion that it's probably a good deal. You're paying for two years of production over three years, something a guy like this will almost certainly reach.
On the other hand, if you're reading this *here* (a Rangers blog), then you know who I'm talking about, and you know I'm leaving out a REALLY IMPORTANT piece of information.
The player is Adrian Beltre, and the contract extension would cover his ages 38 - 40 years.
Now, of course, if you don't know who Adrian Beltre is, and all you're understanding here is "AGES 38 - 40", then you're thinking "Are you insane?" If you know who Adrian Beltre is, then you're thinking "Hm. Umm. Welllllll....huh. I don't know...I mean this IS Beltre...but that's a lot of money for a guy in his late 30's who's going to start declining ANY MINUTE NOW...right?"
I know that's what I'm thinking. That's too much risk. Too much money to give a guy who increasingly is more likely to fall off a cliff than "decline." And we've still got Fielder to either trade or pay, and even if Choo is doing great he's still got a big contract...but with Desmond and Profar RIGHT THERE maybe something will be done about Elvis finally, either he'll be worth his contract or he'll be traded...but OH CRAP WE'VE STILL GOT TO EXTEND DARVISH AND THAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING EVAR.
But I want Adrian Beltre on this team. His best run as a player has been with the Rangers, and he's a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Now, I don't give a damn about the Hall of Fame....except when I do, and for some stupid reason I want Adrian Beltre to go in with a Texas Rangers cap, and I want his biography to say he cemented his HOF credentials by being the best Third Baseman in the game while he was with the team.
Do you pay for that? If you do, how much?
I mean, it's not like he's going to be sitting on the bench with Josh the next few years. Beltre ended last year playing most of the year with a TORN LIGAMENT in his thumb, the same ligament tear that has taken two prominent players out of the game for months recently, and he was STILL one of the best players in baseball in the second half.
If we were talking about a 32- or 33-year old, it would be a no-brainer. At current rates, Beltre has to average a little over 2 1/2 fWAR per year over three years. Dude was worth over 4 1/2 last year WHEN HE WAS HURT.
But I want Adrian Beltre on this team. His best run as a player has been with the Rangers, and he's a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Now, I don't give a damn about the Hall of Fame....except when I do, and for some stupid reason I want Adrian Beltre to go in with a Texas Rangers cap, and I want his biography to say he cemented his HOF credentials by being the best Third Baseman in the game while he was with the team.
Do you pay for that? If you do, how much?
I mean, it's not like he's going to be sitting on the bench with Josh the next few years. Beltre ended last year playing most of the year with a TORN LIGAMENT in his thumb, the same ligament tear that has taken two prominent players out of the game for months recently, and he was STILL one of the best players in baseball in the second half.
If we were talking about a 32- or 33-year old, it would be a no-brainer. At current rates, Beltre has to average a little over 2 1/2 fWAR per year over three years. Dude was worth over 4 1/2 last year WHEN HE WAS HURT.
I *want* it, and every number but one says it will likely work out fine.
38, man...I don't know.
38, man...I don't know.
Posted by: Ben at
10:59 PM
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